Estonia Prepares for Potential Power Disruptions Amid Desynchronisation Plans

Estonia, along with Latvia and Lithuania, is set to disconnect from the Russian electricity grid in early February, marking a significant step towards full energy independence.

The transition, which has been planned for over a decade, will see the Baltic states temporarily operate as an “energy island” before synchronising with the European power system.

Despite concerns about potential disruptions, officials stress that Estonia is well-prepared, with Prime Minister Kristen Michal stating that while power cuts are unlikely, contingency plans are in place to manage any issues that may arise.

A Strategic Shift in Energy Independence

On the morning of 8 February, the Baltic countries will begin the process of disconnecting from Russia’s power system, a holdover from the Soviet era. Lithuania will initiate the process, with Estonia completing it later in the day. By the evening of 9 February, Lithuania will link its electricity lines to Poland’s grid, allowing the Baltic states to synchronise with the Continental European power system.

During the transition, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania will manage electricity supply internally, relying on domestic power generation and energy reserves. The Tallinn University of Technology describes the process as similar to a house temporarily disconnecting from the main grid and operating on solar panels and batteries.

One of the key challenges is maintaining a stable frequency of 50 Hz, which ensures the proper functioning of electrical devices and industrial machinery. Larger power grids offer greater frequency stability, which is why Estonia and its Baltic neighbours have spent years reinforcing their infrastructure in preparation for this transition.

Government Assurances and Risk Management

At a government press conference in Tartu, Michal acknowledged the risks but emphasised Estonia’s readiness. “In the best-case scenario, nothing will happen. If issues arise, we will determine which consumers need to be temporarily disconnected,” he said. “The worst-case scenario would involve power outages lasting up to 72 hours. However, our priority is to prevent this.”

Transmission system operator Elering has stated that the likelihood of large-scale blackouts is extremely low. Estonia has gas turbines, oil shale power plants, and access to Latvia’s hydroelectric power to balance energy needs. Additionally, the country can exchange electricity with Finland via undersea cables, though the two systems operate on different frequencies.

Energy Infrastructure and Future Plans

To ensure stability, Estonia has strengthened its high-capacity 330-kilovolt power lines and installed synchronous compensators to improve grid inertia. These measures will help maintain frequency stability during the transition.

Estonian Ministry of Climate is also exploring large-scale energy storage solutions, which could further enhance grid resilience. A proposal outlining storage options is expected in April.

Michal also addressed Estonia’s broader energy strategy, emphasising the need to expand renewable energy production to reduce electricity costs. “If we want lower energy prices, we must increase renewable energy capacity,” he said, highlighting upcoming projects such as the Kiisa power plant.

Possible Consumption Restrictions

Although a full power outage is unlikely, Elering has contingency measures in place. Estonia’s largest distribution network operator, Elektrilevi, has agreed to limit consumption by up to 200 MW at substations, if necessary. This would involve rotating restrictions at two-hour intervals to balance supply and demand.

Experts note that in extreme scenarios, temporary restrictions in certain areas could be imposed to prevent frequency imbalances. However, they stress that these measures would only be used as a last resort.

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