French Elections: Far-Right to Fall Short of Majority, Polls Predict

A recent poll indicates that the far-right National Rally (Rassemblement National) party is unlikely to secure an absolute majority in the second round of the French parliamentary elections, scheduled for Sunday, 7 July.

As reported by Reuters,  the IFOP poll for LCI television and Le Figaro newspaper revealed that while the National Rally is set to gain more seats than any other party, it will not surpass the threshold of 289 seats required for an absolute majority in parliament.

The findings suggest that the so-called “Republican front” strategy—where over 200 candidates from across the political spectrum withdrew their candidacies to bolster the chances of the best-placed candidate against the far-right in each constituency—appears to have been effective.

The poll predicts that the National Rally will secure between 210 and 240 seats, down from the 240-270 forecasted before the withdrawals.

Marine Le Pen, leader of the National Rally, expressed outrage at Russia’s alleged support for far-right factions in France ahead of the elections.

This poll echoes a similar projection made on Wednesday by Harris Interactive, which estimated that the far-right could win between 190 and 220 seats.

Meanwhile, the left-wing alliance, the New People’s Ecological and Social Union (NUPES), is expected to come in second, with a projected 170 to 200 seats, overtaking President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist Ensemble coalition, which is predicted to secure 95 to 125 seats.

Additionally, the conservative Republicans are expected to gain between 25 and 45 seats in the parliament.

Earlier, French Prime Minister Gabriel Attal stated that the cross-party effort to prevent the National Rally from achieving a majority in the second round of the parliamentary elections might prove successful. President Macron has also called for “democratic unity” in the second round to counter the far-right.

The political landscape in France remains highly dynamic, with parties and coalitions vying for influence in the run-up to the decisive vote. The second round of elections will ultimately determine the composition and balance of power within the French parliament.

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