In the wake of global political shifts, economic turmoil, and the rise of hybrid warfare, it is becoming increasingly clear that the free world – the West in particular – is in a state of conflict with Russia, according to expert Neil Barnett, writing in the Daily Mail.
However, the nature of this war is so unconventional that many haven’t yet fully grasped the reality of it. The battlefields are not defined by soldiers clashing in open fields, but rather by cyberattacks, misinformation campaigns, energy dependency, and geopolitical chess games that stretch across borders.
This isn’t a new revelation. For years, experts like Neil Barnett have argued that the West, particularly Europe and the United States, are engaged in an undeclared war with Russia—a conflict that has unfolded through covert operations, political subversion, and strategic alliances.
The title of Barnett’s piece, “We’re already at war with Russia… we just haven’t woken up to it yet,” captures the essence of this slow realisation.
The Shadow War
What Barnett and many other geopolitical commentators are referring to is often called “hybrid warfare,” a concept that Russia has mastered under the leadership of President Vladimir Putin.
Unlike conventional warfare, hybrid warfare blends military force with non-military tactics, including cyberattacks, economic warfare, and information manipulation. These methods allow Russia to exert influence and destabilise adversaries without officially declaring war.
One clear example of Russia’s hybrid warfare is its involvement in the 2016 U.S. presidential election.
U.S. intelligence agencies have confirmed that Russian operatives were behind a sophisticated misinformation campaign aimed at manipulating public opinion and sowing division among Americans. Social media platforms were flooded with false information, polarising topics, and fake accounts, all designed to erode trust in the democratic process.
This tactic wasn’t new; it was an extension of Russia’s decades-long use of “active measures,” a Soviet-era strategy to influence the politics of rival nations without engaging in direct combat.
In Europe, similar tactics have been deployed. Russia has been accused of backing extremist political parties, stoking tensions in countries such as Hungary, France, and Germany. Its cyberattacks on critical infrastructure in Ukraine, as well as interference in elections across Europe, have furthered the notion that Russia is waging an unconventional war against the West.
Energy as a Weapon
Another front in this war is energy. Russia’s vast reserves of natural gas and oil give it enormous power over Europe, which relies heavily on these resources for heating and electricity.
The Nord Stream pipelines, which carry gas from Russia to Germany, have been at the centre of this geopolitical struggle. By controlling the flow of energy, Russia can manipulate the economies of European nations and punish those that oppose its political agenda.
In the winter of 2009, for example, Russia cut off gas supplies to Ukraine in the midst of a pricing dispute, leaving much of Eastern Europe in the cold.
It was a stark reminder of the Kremlin’s willingness to use energy as a geopolitical weapon. As tensions between Russia and the West continue to escalate, concerns about energy security have only grown.
The invasion of Ukraine in 2022 intensified these concerns, with Europe scrambling to reduce its dependency on Russian energy supplies in response to Moscow’s aggression.
The Importance of Cyberwarfare
Perhaps the most underappreciated aspect of Russia’s strategy is its use of cyberwarfare. As Barnett suggests, Russia is engaged in constant cyberattacks against Western nations, attacking financial institutions, government systems, and critical infrastructure.
In 2020, Russia was accused of orchestrating the SolarWinds hack, a massive cyber espionage campaign that targeted U.S. federal agencies and major corporations. The hack was one of the most significant cyberattacks in history, compromising sensitive data and raising alarms about the vulnerability of Western cyber defences.
Cyberattacks have the unique advantage of being difficult to attribute and often operate in the shadows, making retaliation more complex. By attacking through digital means, Russia can inflict significant damage on its adversaries without risking direct military confrontation. This form of warfare blurs the lines between peace and war, creating a murky battlefield where both sides are constantly on edge but reluctant to escalate to open conflict.
Western Naivety
A central theme of Barnett’s argument is the West’s failure to fully acknowledge the extent of this conflict. Western nations, particularly in Europe, have been slow to respond to Russia’s aggression, often underestimating the threat posed by hybrid warfare.
Part of this reluctance comes from a desire to maintain economic and political stability, especially in regions that are heavily dependent on Russian energy or have significant trade relationships with the Kremlin.
However, as Barnett points out, this complacency has only emboldened Russia. By not recognising the true nature of the conflict, the West has allowed Russia to operate in a grey zone, where it can continue its campaigns of disinformation, cyberattacks, and political manipulation without facing significant consequences.
The lack of a coordinated and robust response has left Western democracies vulnerable, allowing Russia to expand its influence and undermine the political and economic foundations of its rivals.
Waking Up to Reality
Neil Barnett’s assertion that we are already at war with Russia is a sobering wake-up call. This is not a war fought with traditional means, but it is no less dangerous. Russia’s strategy of hybrid warfare has allowed it to weaken its adversaries from within, attacking the very institutions that define Western democracies.
The West must recognise the reality of this conflict and respond accordingly, or risk being continually undermined by a rival that is playing by an entirely different set of rules.
The first step in combating this threat is acknowledging its existence. Only by understanding the nature of Russia’s tactics can the West hope to defend itself and preserve the values and institutions that have defined it for generations. The time to wake up is now.
