President Emmanuel Macron has appointed François Bayrou as France’s new prime minister in a decisive move aimed at resolving the country’s persistent political deadlock. Bayrou, a long-time centrist ally of Macron and leader of the MoDem party, steps into the role following a turbulent period in French politics that has seen three prime ministers come and go within a year.
A Fragile Political Landscape
The political impasse began earlier this year when Macron called snap parliamentary elections following disappointing results in the EU elections. The outcome left France with a fragmented National Assembly, divided into three blocs comprising the left, centre, and far right. This fragmentation has made it difficult to form a stable government.
Bayrou’s appointment follows the ousting of former Prime Minister Michel Barnier, who lasted just three months. Barnier, a former Brexit negotiator, faced a no-confidence vote after his plans for €60bn in tax hikes and spending cuts were rejected. The far-right National Rally, led by Marine Le Pen, joined left-wing MPs in voting down his proposals, citing concerns over the cost-of-living crisis and the direction of economic policy.
Challenges Ahead for Bayrou
At 73, Bayrou brings decades of political experience and is respected across France’s political spectrum. However, forming a government capable of surviving in the National Assembly remains a significant challenge. Macron has already held discussions with leaders from various political factions, excluding the far-left France Insoumise (LFI) and Le Pen’s National Rally.
Key to Bayrou’s success will be persuading centre-left parties—the Socialists, Greens, and Communists—to support his government or at least refrain from initiating a no-confidence vote. However, these parties have expressed scepticism about a centrist-led administration, with some demanding a left-wing prime minister in return for their cooperation.
Marine Tondelier, leader of the Greens, voiced her opposition, stating, “Mr Bayrou isn’t from the left or the Greens, and I don’t see how the same centrist policies can lead to a different outcome.” Similarly, Socialist leader Carole Delga criticised the ongoing political stalemate, likening it to “a bad movie” that has left French citizens frustrated.
Macron’s Gambit
President Macron, now midway through his second and final term, is under pressure to stabilise his administration. His decision to appoint Bayrou reflects a bid to consolidate centrist forces without relying on the far right, a contentious strategy that characterised Barnier’s brief tenure. Macron has vowed to serve out his term until 2027, but the political gridlock threatens to undermine his agenda.
Macron cut short a visit to Poland this week to focus on selecting a new prime minister, delaying the announcement until Friday after hours of deliberations with Bayrou at the Élysée Palace.
Divisions Within the Left
The centre-left bloc remains divided over its approach to Macron’s government. While the Socialists, Greens, and Communists have engaged in talks, the radical left LFI, led by Jean-Luc Mélenchon, has rejected any coalition deal. Mélenchon has urged his former allies to abstain from negotiations, a move that has drawn criticism from other left-wing leaders.
Socialist leader Olivier Faure remarked, “The more Mélenchon shouts, the less he’s heard,” highlighting the fractures within the opposition. Meanwhile, Marine Le Pen has called for her party’s priorities on immigration and cost-of-living issues to be considered by the incoming government, signalling potential conditional support for Bayrou’s policies.
Economic Pressures
France’s economic challenges add urgency to the political situation. The country’s budget deficit is projected to reach 6.1% of GDP this year, and a new government will need to present a comprehensive budget for 2025. Barnier’s caretaker government has submitted a bill to extend provisions for the 2024 budget, but long-term solutions remain elusive.
Bayrou’s immediate task will be to craft a budget that satisfies competing demands without crossing red lines for any major party. Whether he can navigate these complexities and restore stability to French politics will determine the trajectory of Macron’s presidency.
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