Brexit Forecast: Economists Admit They Got It Wrong

Britain's economy is now predicted to overtake France's in 2020, according to the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR). 

Experts from the economic think tank had previously claimed that the UK economy would slow down because of a drop in consumer spending and investment as a result of the Brexit vote.

But last night they admitted it they had got this wrong, saying: 'In practice this has not happened.'

Its economists accepted the fears they expressed last year that Brexit would leave the UK behind the French economy for five years were exaggerated. 

The City has actually increased its lead as the world's financial centre since the July 2016 referendum, they have admitted.

The CEBR said that a trade deal with Brussels looked more likely after Theresa May agreed a transitional deal with the EU earlier this month, and that Britons should look forward to lower inflation and higher wages over the next few months. The UK – currently the world's sixth-largest economy – will overtake France in 2020, a year earlier than it had originally forecast.

The UK fell behind France in 2017 as the value of the pound fell after the Brexit vote, but the currency has bounced back quicker than expected.

Many forecasts are honestly wrong, but unfortunately many of the forecasts around Brexit were politically motivated and have undermined trust in the probity and impartiality of those making them.

Jacob Rees-Mogg

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Gary Cartwright

Gary Cartwright

Gary Cartwright is publishing editor and Brussels correspondent of EU Today.

An experienced journalist and author, he specialises in environment, energy, and defence.

He also has more than 10 years experience of working as a staff member in the EU institutions, working with political groups and MEPs in various policy areas.

In October 2021 POLITICO described Gary as "the busiest man in Brussels!"

He is a of member the Chartered Institute of Journalists, a professional association for journalists, the senior such body in the UK, and the oldest in the world having been founded in October 1884

Gary's most recent book WANTED MAN: THE STORY OF MUKHTAR ABLYAZOV: A Manual for Criminals on How to Avoid Punishment in the EU is currently available from Amazon

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