No overall majority predicted in Spanish elections as far-right see support surge

Neither the left nor the right will win a majority in Spain’s parliamentary election this Sunday, according to a calculation by El Pais newspaper based on dozens of opinion polls,  suggesting that the election will fail to break a long-standing stalemate that has forced voters to the polls for the second time this year and for the fourth time in four years. 

Instead, it suggested the emergence of a far more complex political landscape, with a 60% chance of neither the left nor the right reaching the 176 seats needed for a majority in the 350-seat parliament. 

The Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party (PSOE), led by Pedro Sanchez, would lead, despite a recent drop in support, with 117 seats, down from the 123 seats obtained in April’s inconclusive election. 

PSOE's main rival, the conservative People’s Party (PP), could reach 92 seats, a significant gain from the 66 seats it won in the previous election. 

In keeping with the EU-wide trend, the Far-right party Vox, which secured its first parliamentary seats in the previous election, could see its seats nearly double from 24 to 46, overtaking left-wing Podemos and centre-right Ciudadanos to become the third-largest parliamentary group, it showed. 

Several recent polls suggest support increased for Vox since the eruption of protests, at times violent, in Catalonia following the sentencing of nine independence leaders to prison terms of up to 13 years last month. 

This unrest appears to have given a boost to parties on the right, who have called for the central government to take a tougher line on the separatists. 

In the past four years, elections in Spain have produced minority or short-lived governments as political leaders struggled to adapt to the emergence of new parties that ended years of dominance by PP and Socialists. 

The El Pais poll of polls is based on surveys published until Monday. By law, opinion polls cannot be published any closer to the election date. 

Read also: 

Spanish Socialist Party losing support as elections loom

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