Putin’s Approval: War Begins to Strain Public Confidence

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s approval rating has reached a historic low since the onset of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, as reported by the Russian polling agency VTsIOM (All-Russian Public Opinion Research Center) on 23 August 2024.

The decline comes amid intensified Ukrainian military activity in Russia’s Kursk region. However, it is important to note that these figures have not been independently verified.

According to WCIOM, the approval rating of Putin’s presidency dropped by 3.5 percentage points during the week of 12-18 August 2024, settling at 73.6%. This represents a significant decrease from the previous week (5-11 August), when the approval rating stood at 77.1%. Survey participants were asked a straightforward question: “Do you generally approve or disapprove of the president’s activities?”

In tandem with the drop in the approval rating, Putin’s trust rating also fell during the same period. WCIOM data indicates that the level of trust in the Russian president declined by 2.6 percentage points, from 80.8% to 78.2%. Respondents were asked, “Do you trust or not trust Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin?”

These figures mark the steepest drop in both approval and trust ratings since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. According to the data reported by “Agency,” this decline highlights the most significant fluctuations in support for the Russian president during the ongoing conflict.

Historically, Putin’s approval rating dipped below 73.6% during the summer and autumn of 2023, following the armed mutiny led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, the founder of the Wagner Group, a private military company. During this period, Putin’s approval rating hit a low of 72.6% in the week of 7-13 August 2023.

Putin’s trust rating has also experienced notable declines throughout the war. On two occasions, it fell below 78%—first during the autumn and winter of 2022-2023, following the Russian military mobilisation, and again during the summer and autumn of 2023, after Prigozhin’s rebellion. The lowest trust rating recorded was 76.7%, which occurred between 31 July and 6 August 2023.

The fall in approval and trust ratings underscores the challenges Putin faces domestically as the war drags on and the public’s perception of the government’s handling of the conflict shifts. The ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region, which borders Ukraine, has further strained public confidence.

The situation is being monitored by other polling institutions as well. The Foundation for Public Opinion (FOM) has also observed a decline in Putin’s ratings. In addition, the independent Levada Center is expected to release its data by the end of August, which will offer further insight into the changing attitudes of the Russian populace toward the president.

While the reasons behind the decline in Putin’s ratings are multifaceted, several key events have likely contributed to this trend. The Ukrainian military’s advances, coupled with internal instability, including the aftermath of Prigozhin’s rebellion and the mobilisation of troops, appear to have shaken confidence in the government’s ability to manage the war effectively.

Public discontent has also been driven by growing casualties, economic challenges, and dissatisfaction with the Russian leadership’s decision-making. The gradual erosion of trust in Putin’s leadership reflects broader unease with the trajectory of the war, as hopes for a swift victory have faded.

Although Putin’s approval and trust ratings remain relatively high by international standards, the recent declines represent a significant departure from the traditionally stable support he has enjoyed over his two-decade rule. The current situation signals potential vulnerabilities for the Kremlin as it navigates both the military and political challenges posed by the war in Ukraine.