Russia’s ‘Compatriots Abroad’ Scheme: A Tool for Further Aggression and Hybrid Operations – ISW

Russia is advancing its ‘compatriots abroad’ initiative, which analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) believe is designed to justify future aggression and hybrid operations.

The Kremlin’s strategy appears to involve developing a framework to legitimise the status of ‘compatriots abroad’, creating conditions to rationalise further aggressive actions under the pretext of protecting Russian nationals.

Fifth World Congress of Russian Compatriots Living Abroad

The ‘compatriots abroad’ scheme, formally known as the ‘Electronic Compatriot Card’, is spearheaded by Yevgeny Primakov, the General Director of the Federal Agency for the Commonwealth of Independent States Affairs, Compatriots Living Abroad, and International Humanitarian Cooperation.

Primakov revealed in an interview with TASS, a Russian state media outlet, that this programme aims to provide Russian state services to compatriots abroad, facilitate their employment in Russia, and potentially enable them to apply for Russian citizenship.

Primakov indicated that Russia plans to launch a pilot version of this programme in several neighbouring countries, with the initial issuance of cards expected by the end of 2024. He estimated that there are between 20 to 40 million ‘compatriots’ abroad, though the exact criteria for defining these compatriots remain unclear.

Experts at ISW suggest that the Kremlin’s initiative is part of a broader strategy to create informational and legal pretexts for further aggression and hybrid operations. This initiative is seen as an extension of Russia’s ongoing efforts to wield influence through a combination of military, cyber, and propaganda tactics, collectively known as hybrid warfare.

The concept of protecting ‘compatriots abroad’ has been a recurring theme in Russian foreign policy, often used to justify interventions. This rationale was notably employed during the 2014 annexation of Crimea and the conflict in Eastern Ukraine.

The ‘Electronic Compatriot Card’ is perceived as a new instrument to bolster this narrative and provide a legal veneer for Russia’s actions.

Moldovan and Ukrainian officials have previously warned about Russia’s use of the ‘Russian House’ cultural centres to disseminate propaganda and conduct subversive activities.

The development of the ‘Electronic Compatriot Card’ is seen as an extension of these efforts, raising alarms about increased Russian influence and potential interference in the domestic affairs of neighbouring states.

Rossotrudnichestvo, the Russian government agency responsible for managing the programme, has been working on the ‘Electronic Compatriot Card’ since at least 2021. However, the programme has not yet been launched.

Primakov announced in June 2023 that the agency plans to establish ‘certification centres’ within ‘Russian House’ hubs globally, where compatriots can verify their identity to apply for the card.

The introduction of the ‘Electronic Compatriot Card’ could significantly enhance Russia’s ability to intervene in the affairs of neighbouring countries under the guise of protecting its nationals. This development could lead to increased Russian influence in these regions, potentially destabilising the political landscape.

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