The ongoing war in Ukraine could see a new shift in military alliances as South Korea contemplates sending military advisors and weapons to Kyiv. This move is reportedly in response to North Korea’s recent deployment of soldiers to Russia, an action that has raised alarm across South Korea and the international community. Pyongyang’s decision to dispatch troops to assist Moscow comes amid continued military cooperation between the Russia and North Korea, raising significant security concerns in the region.
According to Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence Directorate (GUR), North Korean troops are expected to arrive in Russia’s Kursk region imminently, with up to 12,000 soldiers, including elite special forces, poised to assist in defending Russian positions. The exact numbers and the specific role of these troops remain unclear. Lt. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov, head of the GUR, suggested that more information about the North Korean units and their equipment would emerge in the coming days.
The presence of North Korean troops in Russia is seen as a stark violation of United Nations Security Council resolutions, which explicitly prohibit military cooperation with North Korea. South Korea’s National Security Council expressed deep concern over this development, labelling it a “significant security threat” and urging the international community to respond firmly. Principal Deputy National Security Adviser Kim Tae-hyo indicated that Seoul might escalate its response if the military partnership between Moscow and Pyongyang deepens.
Potential South Korean Response
In light of these developments, South Korea is considering several measures, including the potential deployment of military advisors to Ukraine. According to sources, these personnel would likely monitor and analyse the tactics of North Korean special forces, which could provide valuable insights for Ukraine in combating Russian-backed operations. Additionally, South Korean intelligence officers could assist in interrogations of captured North Korean soldiers, should such situations arise.
South Korea has also been assessing the possibility of supplying Ukraine with advanced defensive weaponry. Among the systems under consideration is the Cheongung-II medium-range surface-to-air missile system, known as the M-SAM. This system could significantly bolster Ukraine’s air defence capabilities, particularly against lower-tier ballistic missile threats. Additionally, South Korea could potentially supply offensive weapons such as artillery shells, howitzers, tanks, and multiple launch rocket systems. Such contributions could offer Ukraine a crucial advantage in its efforts to repel Russian advances.
North Korean Military Support to Russia
Reports indicate that North Korea has already dispatched fighter pilots to Russia in the run-up to the ground troop deployment. These pilots were allegedly sent to Vladivostok, a major city in the Russian Far East, with speculation that they are undergoing training on Russian aircraft. There are suggestions that Russia, which has been grappling with a shortage of pilots, might have requested North Korean assistance to alleviate its manpower issues.
Training North Korean pilots to operate Russian jets presents significant challenges, particularly given language barriers and differences in military doctrine. Nevertheless, North Korean personnel could potentially be trained on familiar aircraft, such as the Su-25 Frogfoot, a ground attack jet commonly used by both Russia and North Korea.
Wider International Implications
South Korea is not the only nation contemplating further action in response to the North Korean-Russian alliance. Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis has called for a reassessment of French President Emmanuel Macron’s earlier proposal to deploy European troops to Ukraine. Landsbergis suggested that, if reports of North Korean military personnel supporting Russia are confirmed, it may be time to revisit the idea of deploying “boots on the ground” in Ukraine.
South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol has also been engaging with NATO leadership on the issue. In a recent conversation with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, President Yoon discussed enhancing military cooperation between South Korea, Ukraine, and NATO, particularly in response to North Korean troop movements. The possibility of South Korea joining NATO’s Battlefield Information Collection and Exploitation System (BICES) to facilitate real-time data sharing was raised during these discussions.
Strategic Implications for Russia
North Korea’s provision of troops and military assistance is a clear indicator of the deepening ties between Moscow and Pyongyang. In June, Russian President Vladimir Putin submitted a draft law to the State Duma seeking the ratification of a strategic partnership agreement with North Korea. This partnership includes provisions for mutual military assistance in the event of war, further solidifying the alliance between the two nations.
For Russia, the influx of North Korean troops provides a significant boost to its manpower, which has been severely depleted since the war began in February 2022. According to the Pentagon, Russia has suffered approximately 600,000 casualties, including killed and wounded soldiers, since the start of the invasion. The war has taken a particularly heavy toll on Russian forces, with September 2024 recording the highest monthly casualty rates to date.
Image source: twitter KyivPost
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