The introduction of advanced long-range missile systems, including Storm Shadow and SCALP missiles, into Ukraine’s arsenal has significantly altered the dynamics of the war with Russia. These precision-guided weapons, provided by Western allies, have enabled Ukraine to strike deep within Russian territory, compelling Moscow to reposition its combat aviation assets and reduce the frequency of its airstrikes on Ukrainian positions.
A Marked Decline in Russian Airstrike Intensity
Before the deployment of these missiles, Russian aircraft were conducting up to 100 bombing sorties daily on average, with some days exceeding 170. These airstrikes relied heavily on so-called “gliding bombs,” including FAB-series munitions, which allowed strikes from standoff distances beyond the range of most Ukrainian defences.
However, within days of Washington’s 18 November approval for Ukraine to strike Russian territory using Western-supplied missiles, the intensity of Russian airstrikes plummeted. Data now indicates a sharp reduction to an average of 25 sorties per day, marking a decline of up to 75% in some areas.
source: @pravdapi
This decline coincided with reports of successful Ukrainian missile strikes targeting key Russian airbases, military command centres, and ammunition depots. Observers suggest that the sudden drop in Russian airstrike intensity reflects a combination of tactical adjustments and operational constraints imposed by the relocation of aircraft to bases further away from the frontlines.
The Strategic Relocation of Russian Aircraft
To mitigate the threat posed by Ukrainian long-range missiles, Russia has moved many of its combat aircraft to bases located deeper within its territory, such as Engels airbase. This repositioning has reduced the vulnerability of its aviation assets but at the cost of operational effectiveness. The longer distances now required for bombing missions mean Russian aircraft must either carry fewer munitions or expend more fuel, reducing their range and limiting the frequency of sorties.
For aircraft such as the Su-34 and Su-25, which were central to Russia’s air campaign, the increased distances also complicate mission planning. These aircraft often lack the range to fly to and from the frontlines while carrying a full complement of bombs. To conserve resources and ensure operational readiness, Russia has had to curtail its air operations significantly. This operational reality underscores the effectiveness of Ukraine’s missile strategy in disrupting Russian military operations.
Direct Impacts of Ukrainian Missile Strikes
Ukrainian strikes have targeted high-value military assets on Russian territory, with notable successes against S-400 air defence systems, ammunition depots, and even command centres. Examples include strikes near Kursk, where S-400 systems were reportedly destroyed, and in the Rostov region, where Ukrainian missiles hit ammunition storage facilities and a military base in Taganrog. These attacks not only degrade Russia’s military capabilities but also expose weaknesses in its air defence systems, which have struggled to intercept these advanced missiles.
By targeting critical infrastructure, Ukraine has achieved a dual objective: reducing Russia’s ability to sustain its air campaign and undermining morale within the Russian military. The strikes have also demonstrated the reach and precision of Ukraine’s upgraded arsenal, challenging long-held assumptions about Russia’s air superiority.
The Geopolitical Repercussions
The use of long-range missiles by Ukraine has sparked considerable debate within the international community. While Kyiv views these strikes as a necessary response to Russia’s continued aggression, critics, including newly elected U.S. President Donald Trump, have expressed concerns about the potential for escalation. Trump recently stated his opposition to the use of long-range weapons against Russian territory, citing the risk of provoking a broader conflict.
Despite such concerns, Ukrainian officials argue that these strikes are a legitimate defensive measure aimed at countering Russia’s ongoing attacks. Over the past year, Ukraine has faced repeated barrages of missile and drone strikes targeting civilian infrastructure, energy facilities, and cities. The Ukrainian government maintains that its use of long-range missiles is proportionate and necessary to deter further aggression.
Operational Challenges for Russian Aviation
The repositioning of Russian aircraft to bases beyond the range of Ukrainian missiles has created logistical challenges that are difficult to overcome. Aircraft stationed further from the frontlines must travel greater distances to reach their targets, reducing the efficiency of bombing missions. This has also affected the types of ordnance that can be used. Heavier payloads, which would be more effective against fortified positions, significantly reduce an aircraft’s range, forcing Russian forces to make trade-offs between payload capacity and operational reach.
Additionally, the redeployment of aircraft has stretched Russian resources thin, with fewer airfields available to support the high tempo of operations seen earlier in the conflict. The move to bases such as Engels also increases maintenance demands, as aircraft must undertake longer flights in more challenging conditions.
Ukraine’s Growing Missile Capabilities
Ukraine has signalled its intent to expand its missile production capacity significantly. President Volodymyr Zelensky has announced plans to produce up to 250 long-range missiles per month. If realised, this expansion could enable Ukraine to sustain its strategic strikes on Russian military infrastructure, further eroding Moscow’s ability to conduct effective air operations.
The psychological impact of these missile strikes on the Russian military should not be underestimated. By demonstrating the ability to target strategic locations deep within Russian territory, Ukraine has forced Moscow to adopt a defensive posture, reducing its capacity to project power offensively.
Conclusion: A Turning Point in the Conflict
The introduction of long-range missile systems into Ukraine’s arsenal marks a significant turning point in the conflict. By forcing Russia to relocate its aviation assets and reduce the intensity of its airstrikes, these weapons have levelled the playing field and provided Ukraine with a much-needed respite from relentless aerial bombardment.
While the risk of escalation remains a concern, the strategic and tactical gains achieved through these strikes cannot be ignored. As Ukraine continues to enhance its missile capabilities, the effectiveness of its military operations is likely to increase, potentially shifting the balance of power in the war.
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