In a significant trade-oriented economic shift, Germany sees the United States surpassing China as its primary trading partner in the first quarter of this year.
According to calculations by Reuters based on official data from the German statistics office, trade between Germany and the United States, combining both exports and imports, reached 63 billion euros ($68 billion) from January to March, outpacing the figure of just under 60 billion euros for China during the same period.
“German exports to the U.S. have now risen further due to the robust economy there, while both exports to and imports from China have fallen,” explained Commerzbank economist Vincent Stamer.
Stamer attributed this shift to various factors, including the robust economy in the United States and a decline in both exports to and imports from China.
He noted that China’s ascent up the value chain and increased domestic production of complex goods previously imported from Germany have contributed to this trend.
Additionally, German companies are increasingly opting to produce locally rather than exporting goods to China.
“The fact that the Chinese economy is performing worse than many had hoped, while the U.S. economy is exceeding expectations, is presumably contributing to this,” highlighted Juergen Matthes, from the German economic institute IW.
Matthes emphasised a broader reorientation in Germany’s economic and geopolitical strategies, pointing towards a shift away from China and towards the transatlantic partnership with the United States.
“With a clear global economic headwind for the German economic model, a reorientation – also geopolitically motivated – seems to be taking place: away from system rival China and towards transatlantic partner U.S.,” he added.
However, the sustainability of this trend remains uncertain, contingent upon future developments such as potential policy shifts in the U.S. following the upcoming elections.
“If the White House administration changes after the U.S. elections in November and moves more in the direction of closing off markets, this process could come to a standstill,” cautioned Dirk Jandura, president of the BGA trade association.
Germany has expressed its intention to diminish its reliance on China, citing political disparities and accusing Beijing of “unfair practices” in its first China strategy declaration last year.
However, Berlin’s articulation on concrete policy measures to decrease dependencies has remained nebulous.
Despite the desire to diversify trade partnerships, the extent to which Germany will recalibrate its economic strategies in response to geopolitical shifts remains to be seen.
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