From Strength to Submission? Trump’s Outreach to Authoritarian Leaders Sparks Concerns

On the eve of his inauguration as President of the United States, Donald Trump held a “Victory Rally,” where he reiterated his commitment to ending the war in Ukraine.

While details on how he plans to achieve this remain absent, President Trump has reportedly instructed his team to arrange a phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin shortly after taking office. This approach marks a stark departure from the policy of his predecessor, Joe Biden, who refused contact with Putin following Russia’s large-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

A Return to Direct Diplomacy?

Trump’s belief that direct communication between the US and Russian presidents is key to ending the war contrasts with Biden’s strategy of isolating Russia. Biden’s administration pursued a hardline policy, providing extensive military and financial support to Ukraine while leveraging international sanctions to weaken Russia’s capacity for prolonged aggression. Trump, however, has historically expressed a preference for personal diplomacy, often characterised by his public displays of respect towards authoritarian leaders, including Putin and China’s Xi Jinping.

Trump’s campaign rhetoric included claims that he could resolve the war in Ukraine within “24 or 48 hours,” a statement that became a hallmark of his election bid. However, as inauguration nears, these declarations have given way to vaguer assurances of a resolution, raising questions about whether his approach represents a genuine plan or a pretext for re-establishing ties with Moscow.

Potential Shifts in US-China Relations

Trump’s proposed foreign policy extends beyond Russia. He has expressed a desire to visit China within the first 100 days of his presidency, a move aimed at resetting relations with Beijing. During Biden’s tenure, US-China relations were largely managed through summits held on American soil or at multilateral forums, reflecting a cautious approach to engagement. Trump’s overture to China signals a return to the more transactional style of his first term, which saw a mix of aggressive trade measures and personal rapport with Xi Jinping.

This strategy highlights Trump’s broader worldview, which appears to prioritise high-profile engagements with powerful counterparts. By initiating direct talks with authoritarian leaders like Putin and Xi, Trump risks positioning himself in a place of weakness from the outset—an outcome he may not fully realise.

This approach could also recalibrate US foreign policy towards a leader-centric model, potentially undermining institutional diplomacy and multilateral coordination.

Risks of Perceived Weakness

Critics argue that Trump’s openness to dialogue with authoritarian regimes risks emboldening them. History offers warnings about the dangers of misjudged diplomacy: the prelude to the Second World War demonstrated how dictators, such as Adolf Hitler, exploited perceived Western indecision.

A similar miscalculation today could embolden Moscow or Beijing to pursue their agendas more aggressively, interpreting Trump’s eagerness to initiate contact with them as a sign that the US lacks the resolve to respond decisively.

The stakes are particularly high regarding nuclear weapons. Trump’s campaign statements have emphasised the proximity of the world to a third world war, a sentiment underscored by ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East.

However, his critics question whether he and his team fully comprehend the complexities of these geopolitical risks beyond mere rhetoric or possess the capacity to manage them effectively.

Strategic Calculations or Concessions?

Trump’s approach has sparked debate about whether it reflects strategic foresight or a willingness to concede to authoritarian demands. His administration’s handling of conflicts, from potential ceasefires in Ukraine to managing tensions in the Indo-Pacific, will shape perceptions of US strength.

Additionally, Trump’s rhetoric about preventing nuclear catastrophe contrasts sharply with his apparent readiness to seek compromises that may undermine allies like Ukraine.

The reinstatement of TikTok in the US after its effective ban under the Biden administration exemplifies another potential shift. Critics view such moves as signs of a softer stance towards China, possibly creating vulnerabilities in the broader contest for technological and strategic dominance.

Preparing for Turbulence

As Trump prepares to assume office, the international arena is bracing for significant turbulence. His foreign policy ambitions—whether genuine attempts to stabilise global hotspots or a return to a more transactional US posture—will have far-reaching implications. Allies may question the reliability of US commitments, while adversaries could test the limits of Washington’s patience.

Trump’s presidency is set to reshape global politics, with his direct approach to engaging authoritarian leaders introducing significant risks. The outcomes will hinge on whether his administration can assert US strength while pursuing dialogue, or if his overtures to regimes like Russia and China inadvertently weaken Washington’s position, emboldening adversaries and unsettling allies.

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