Andrew A. Michta, Senior Fellow in the GeoStrategy Initiative at the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, and former dean of the College of International and Security Studies at the George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies, provided a detailed analysis of the Ukraine war and its global implications during a discussion with Hanna Hopko, a prominent Ukrainian civil society leader and politician, on the livestream Subjective but Truthful.
Recognised as one of the foremost experts in international security, NATO, and European politics, with a special focus on Central Europe and the Baltic states, Michta’s remarks come at a pivotal moment as a new U.S. administration prepares to take power, raising expectations for a shift in American policy towards the war.
The Critical Phase of the War
Michta identified the current period as a decisive one for Ukraine and its allies. “We are now probably in the most important phase of this war,” he said, pointing to the transition between administrations in Washington as a time for key decisions.
He dismissed President-elect Donald Trump’s campaign promise to end the war in 24 hours as unrealistic and emblematic of campaign rhetoric. “To have any negotiation with the Russians, they have to be motivated to negotiate in good faith,” Michta explained. “Putin is not interested in any meaningful deal; his goal remains the destruction or control of Ukraine to fulfil his imperial ambitions.”
The impending transition in U.S. leadership has the potential to profoundly influence the trajectory of the war. “This is the moment for Washington to redefine its strategy and leadership,” Michta noted. He argued that the West must ensure Russia sees the cost of continuing the war as unsustainable.
This requires lifting restrictions on Ukraine’s military capabilities and providing the resources necessary to shift the battlefield dynamics decisively.
Ukraine’s NATO Membership: A Missed Opportunity
A long-time advocate for Ukraine’s integration into NATO, Michta described membership as essential for the country’s long-term security.
“Ukraine today is the best NATO member that we don’t have,”
he stated, highlighting the country’s battle-hardened military and its critical role in defending Europe.
Reflecting on NATO’s 2008 decision not to extend membership to Ukraine, Michta called it a “missed opportunity” that emboldened Russia. He stressed that NATO’s credibility now hinges on its ability to rearm and commit to real military capabilities.
“NATO will either rearm or risk becoming hollow,” Michta warned, adding that member states must meet their obligations under the alliance’s regional defence plans. He also emphasised that new U.S. leadership will play a crucial role in ensuring NATO remains credible and effective.
The EU and Poland’s Role
While NATO is central to European security, Michta acknowledged the EU’s role but critiqued its often symbolic approach.
“The EU’s tendency to focus on bureaucracy rather than decisive action won’t deter Russia,”
he observed.
He emphasised the strategic importance of Polish-Ukrainian cooperation, describing Poland as “what West Germany was during the Cold War—a frontline state against Russian aggression.” He urged both nations to set aside historical tensions and focus on shared strategic interests, especially as Poland prepares to take over the EU presidency.
“The Polish EU presidency could push security to the forefront of the European agenda, but long-term solutions for Ukraine’s security must ultimately be addressed within NATO,”
he said.
American Leadership and the Global Stakes
A central theme of the discussion was the need for robust U.S. leadership, especially during this transitional period. Michta criticised past American decisions, such as lifting sanctions on Nord Stream 2, as strategic missteps. “These actions emboldened Russia and weakened the West’s credibility,” he argued.
Describing the Ukraine war as “system-transforming,” Michta warned that its outcome will shape global power dynamics for decades. “This isn’t just about Ukraine; it’s about a broader struggle between democracies and autocracies,” he explained, pointing to the alignment of Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran against the West.
He cautioned that failure in Ukraine would have global repercussions. “If we lose credibility in Europe, we will lose it in the Indo-Pacific. These theatres are interconnected, and the stakes are global.”
Countering Russian Imperialism
Michta highlighted the historical roots of Russian imperialism, arguing that it is central to the Kremlin’s aggression. “As long as Russia remains an imperial state, it will remain a threat to its neighbours and global stability,” he stated.
He pointed out that Russia has historically fractured after losing foreign wars, citing the Russo-Japanese War and the First World War as examples. “We need to create conditions where Russia is no longer a chronic threat,” Michta explained, adding that this is not about reshaping Russia’s politics but ensuring it cannot rebuild its imperial ambitions.
Energy Security and Economic Leverage
Michta praised Ukraine’s decision to halt Russian gas transit from 2025, calling it a bold step toward energy independence. “Energy has always been a tool of Russian influence,” he noted. “By cutting off this transit, Ukraine is sending a clear message that it will no longer enable Russia’s geopolitical ambitions.”
He also called for greater economic pressure on Russia, including the confiscation of frozen Russian assets to fund Ukraine’s reconstruction. “The West must use its economic leverage to weaken Russia’s ability to sustain its war machine,” he said.
Unity and Strategy: A Call to Action
As the war continues, Michta underscored the need for unity among Ukraine’s allies and a clear strategy for victory. He warned against appeasement, stating, “Appeasement or compromises with Russia will only embolden other autocratic powers. This is not just about Ukraine; it’s about the future of the international order.”
The transition to a new U.S. administration represents a unique opportunity to redefine strategies and bolster Western unity. Michta stressed that Ukraine’s victory is both a moral and strategic necessity. “The stakes are clear: this war is about the survival of democracy and the international rules-based order. The West must stand united and resolute in its support for Ukraine.”
Michta’s analysis provides crucial insights during this pivotal moment in global politics. As one of the top experts in international security, NATO, and European politics, with a focus on Central Europe and the Baltic states, his expertise highlights the urgent need for coordinated action, strong leadership, and a renewed commitment to democracy and stability. His roadmap for resilience and strategic planning offers clear guidance for Ukraine and its allies in navigating this historic conflict.
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