European Council on Foreign Relations survey reveals citizens’ fears over EU enlargement

According to a new survey published by the European Council on Foreign Relations, citizens have fears about the impact enlargement could have on the EU’s political power in the world.

It says Poland and Denmark are the most optimistic on this question, with a plurality of 43% and 35% of citizens, respectively, believing Ukraine’s accession would have a positive impact for the EU’s political power in the world.

Just 21% and 19%, respectively, expect a negative impact.

It says there are concerns that Ukraine’s accession could pose economic and security risks to the bloc and its member states – more so than the admittance of candidate countries from the Western Balkans.

A prevailing view in Austria (42%) and Germany (32%), however, is that Ukraine’s accession would have a negative impact on the EU’s political power in the world; and those in France and Romania are split in their opinion, with 24% and 31%, respectively, believing it would have a positive impact, and 28% in both member states believing it would have a negative impact.

The survey says divides exist on when any potential enlargement should take place.

ECFR’s data shows that citizens, on average, are divided into three equal parts on the timings of any expansion of the EU: between those who think enlargement should proceed today (35%); those who don’t think the EU should enlarge at this moment (37%); and those who are indifferent on this point or don’t know (28%).

There is also a split between ‘old’ and ‘new’ EU countries on the broader subject of admitting new member states.

Of the countries surveyed, respondents in Austria (53%), Germany (50%) and France (44%) are most likely to hold the view that the EU should not pursue any immediate enlargement. In Romania, a majority (51%), and in Poland, a plurality (48%), believe the EU should be looking to add new member states.

Denmark is somewhat of an outlier among the ‘old’ member states, with just 37% opposing any immediate enlargement – although this is still a prevailing view.

There is strong opposition to the possibility of Turkey joining the EU. 51% of those surveyed across the six countries oppose the idea of Turkey being able to join.

The findings come after ECFR published an audit of member states’ positions on EU enlargement in November.

That study indicates that there is broad agreement among governments on the need for enlargement as a geopolitical necessity, but also notes major disagreements and explores how these can be reconciled.

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