The recent protests in Pakistan-Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (PoJK) have resonated far beyond the region’s borders.
Sparked by the controversial Presidential Ordinance 2024, the unrest has exposed the fault lines in Islamabad’s governance and raised questions about the treatment of marginalised regions under its control.
For Europe, which maintains significant economic and diplomatic ties with Pakistan, these developments could reshape the contours of EU-Pakistan relations.
Human Rights and Governance: A European Priority
The European Union has long prioritised human rights, good governance, and the rule of law in its foreign policy. The events in PoJK—marked by violent crackdowns, mass arrests, and the suppression of civil liberties—have highlighted Pakistan’s shortcomings in these areas. The repeal of the ordinance represents a partial concession, but broader systemic issues, including political autonomy, economic inequities, and infrastructure neglect, remain unresolved.
Pakistan’s participation in the Generalised Scheme of Preferences Plus (GSP+), which allows duty-free exports to the EU, is contingent on adherence to 27 international conventions, including those on human rights and labour standards. The protests and Islamabad’s heavy-handed response provide ammunition for European policymakers to reassess Pakistan’s compliance.
A potential suspension of GSP+ status could have dire economic consequences for Pakistan, which relies on the EU for nearly 35% of its exports. For a country grappling with fiscal instability, such a move could further strain Islamabad’s capacity to manage domestic unrest.
In the broader context, this raises critical questions about the EU’s role in holding its trade partners accountable. The PoJK protests present an opportunity for the EU to take a principled stand, ensuring its economic incentives align with its commitment to human rights and democratic governance.
Regional Stability and Counterterrorism
Stability in South Asia is vital for Europe, given the region’s implications for global security and migration. Rising discontent in PoJK, alongside long-standing grievances in Balochistan and Gilgit-Baltistan, reveals a pattern of unrest that could exacerbate Pakistan’s internal divisions. If Islamabad continues to suppress dissent without addressing root causes, it risks pushing marginalised groups towards radicalisation.
Historically, internal instability in Pakistan has spilled over into broader regional tensions. The resurgence of extremist groups like Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and al-Qaeda-linked networks highlights the fragile security situation. For Europe, which has invested heavily in Pakistan’s counterterrorism capacity, this raises the stakes. A destabilised Pakistan could not only hinder progress on counterterrorism but also create conditions for extremism to flourish, directly impacting European security.
The EU must recalibrate its approach to counterterrorism cooperation with Pakistan. This could involve prioritising inclusive governance reforms, strengthening civil society, and linking security assistance to tangible progress in addressing regional grievances. By doing so, Europe can help reduce the conditions that fuel extremism while safeguarding its security interests.
Economic and Trade Relations
Pakistan’s economic crisis—marked by soaring inflation, a depreciating currency, and dwindling foreign reserves—has left it ill-equipped to address the grievances fuelling protests in PoJK. Concessions such as revised electricity tariffs and restored subsidies, while politically expedient, add to fiscal pressures, further narrowing Islamabad’s policy options.
For the EU, which is Pakistan’s largest export market, economic instability in Islamabad poses significant risks. Persistent unrest and a failure to address structural economic issues could disrupt trade partnerships and supply chains. Additionally, European investors may be deterred by Pakistan’s political volatility, leading to a decline in foreign direct investment.
To safeguard its economic interests, the EU must consider a balanced approach. This could involve supporting reforms that improve Pakistan’s economic governance while tying trade incentives to progress on human rights and regional equity. A stable Pakistan, capable of honouring its trade commitments, aligns with Europe’s economic and strategic goals.
A Shifting Narrative on Kashmir
The protests in PoJK complicate Pakistan’s long-standing narrative on Kashmir, which it has historically used to rally international support against India. The unrest exposes the stark contrast between Islamabad’s claims of championing Kashmiri rights and its treatment of PoJK residents. This disparity is not lost on international audiences, including Europe, which has traditionally maintained a neutral stance on the Kashmir dispute.
For European policymakers, the protests offer a moment of clarity. Pakistan’s suppression of dissent in PoJK undercuts its credibility as a voice for Kashmiri self-determination. This could prompt the EU to adopt a more critical stance on Islamabad’s governance, urging it to align its rhetoric with its actions. By amplifying the voices of PoJK’s residents, Europe can reshape the global discourse on Kashmir, emphasising the need for human rights and political freedoms across the region.
Opportunities for Europe
The situation in PoJK presents challenges but also opportunities for Europe to play a constructive role. By leveraging its diplomatic and economic influence, the EU can encourage Pakistan to pursue reforms that address both immediate grievances and long-term governance issues. Key steps Europe might consider include:
- Linking Aid to Reforms: Conditioning economic assistance and trade benefits on demonstrable progress in human rights, governance, and regional equity. For instance, future GSP+ reviews could include specific benchmarks, such as improved civil liberties in PoJK and institutional reforms to address regional disparities.
- Facilitating Dialogue: Supporting platforms for dialogue between Islamabad and regional leaders to address grievances peacefully. The EU could act as a mediator, promoting initiatives that prioritise reconciliation and inclusivity.
- Promoting Development: Investing in marginalised regions through targeted development programmes in infrastructure, education, and healthcare. Such efforts could help bridge economic gaps and reduce the appeal of radicalisation.
These measures align with Europe’s values while reinforcing its role as a global advocate for human rights and development. Refusing to address the wider implications of pandering to Pakistan’s worst impulses will also begin to impact EU-India relations. Europe faces a delicate balancing act.
The protests in PoJK are a watershed moment for Pakistan, exposing the limits of its governance and the growing demands for justice among its marginalised populations.
For Europe, these developments are a test of its commitment to human rights and stability in South Asia. The EU’s response—whether through trade policy, diplomatic engagement, or development aid—will not only influence its relationship with Pakistan but also shape its broader role as a promoter of global peace and equity.
A stable and inclusive Pakistan serves both European and regional interests. By holding Islamabad accountable while supporting pathways for reform, the EU can ensure that the voices of PoJK’s residents are not just heard but acted upon. This approach will reaffirm Europe’s position as a principled and pragmatic actor on the global stage.
