Iran’s Presidential Elections: A Nation at the Crossroads

Today, Iranians head to the polls to elect a new president, following the premature election prompted by the tragic death of the former president, Ebrahim Raisi, in an aviation accident.

The role of the president in Iran, though significant as the head of the executive branch, pales in comparison to the authority wielded by the Supreme Leader, who dictates the political course of the nation.

The president’s identity holds substantial sway over the political elite’s sentiments and influences the perceived direction of the country’s future.

Observers forecast a low voter turnout, with potentially half of registered voters abstaining due to widespread disillusionment with the Islamic Republic’s political system. This scepticism arises from the belief that the president, regardless of who is elected from the approved candidates, will have limited ability to effect significant change in the nation’s trajectory.

With only four candidates left in the race, the election is likely to go to a second round. Polls indicate that none of the candidates will achieve more than 50% of the vote in the first round. The leading candidates expected to progress to the runoff are Massoud Pezeshkian, a moderate with around 24% support, and Saeed Jalili, a conservative with a similar level of backing.

The Candidates

Massoud Pezeshkian stands out as the only moderate in the race, often seen as a beacon of hope for the reformist faction within Iran’s political elite.

A former Minister of Health and Medical Education, and currently a practising cardiac surgeon and parliament member, Pezeshkian has been vocal in his criticism of the government, particularly regarding the lack of progress in investigating the death of Mahsa Amini.

Amini’s death, attributed to the so-called morality police, ignited widespread protests across the country, leading to numerous fatalities and a crackdown on dissent.

Pezeshkian advocates for media freedom, improved relations with the United States, and attracting foreign investment to boost Iran’s economy.

Despite being barred from the 2021 presidential race, his candidacy this time has sparked both hope among moderates and irritation among conservatives.

Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei recently criticised politicians who seek to appease foreign powers, particularly the United States, in a thinly veiled swipe at Pezeshkian.

Saeed Jalili, representing the conservative camp, is a prominent diplomat and member of the Supreme National Security Council, closely aligned with the late Ebrahim Raisi. A veteran of the Iran-Iraq War, where he lost his right leg, Jalili epitomises the hardline conservative ideal.

If Jalili and Pezeshkian advance to the second round, the election’s outcome could significantly impact Iran’s future.

Possible Scenarios

Several scenarios could unfold if Jalili and Pezeshkian face off in the runoff. One likely scenario is that supporters of other conservative candidates might unite behind Jalili, bolstered by the backing of Ayatollah Khamenei and other influential clerics, to prevent a moderate victory. This could create an illusion of democratic choice while ensuring that power remains firmly in conservative hands.

Alternatively, there could be a surge in voter turnout for Pezeshkian if the public perceives a genuine opportunity for change. Should Pezeshkian garner substantial support, even attempts at vote-rigging might not suffice to secure a victory for Jalili. This scenario would pose a significant challenge to the current regime, as a Pezeshkian victory would signal a public mandate for reform and a potential shift in Iran’s domestic and foreign policies.

However, the Iranian authorities are likely to take extensive measures to prevent Pezeshkian’s victory, regardless of public sentiment. This could lead to heightened state repression and further entrench the theocratic nature of Iran’s governance. The regime might starkly demonstrate its disdain for democratic principles, showing the Iranian populace that democracy is acceptable only when it favours the Supreme Leader’s preferred candidates.

Read also:

Firouz Mahvi Condemns Western Mourning After Death of Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi

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