The title is something that rings ever more true in Europe and around the world but seldom is it recognised or taken into account that optimism can often be attributed to a lack of information. Often attributed to Russian actress Faina Ranevskaya the statement is no doubt recognised now however in the Kremlin, following the initial military disasters in Ukraine.
The observation was made by a Russian friend during a group discussion on the state of the world and society. As our assesment of politics , economics and the war in Ukraine progressed one of the group – Patrick Benham-Crosswell – came up with an equally apt truism: “Pessimism is based on information”.
Following our discussion Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced a scheme to forward cross-Channel migrants to Rwanda. This was rapidly ruled illegal by the UN and civil servants in the Home Office were reported to be objecting on the grounds that it would be impractical and to costly.
This sort of thing is not limited to Boris Johnson. Statements by leading politicians and EU officials are all to often loaded with errors and misjudgements.
Patrick is a business advisor and expert on energy and is the author of a recent book on plans to reduce Britain’s net emissions to zero by 2050. Some EU countries announced last week that they will co-operate on hydrogen production. They should read his book.
The switch to electric cars, in the UK at least, is way off target. Specialist advisors recommend waiting five years before even thinking of switching. So the question arises: is the future of transport electricity or hydrogen or something else?
An excerpt from Patrick Benham-Crossewell’s study highlights the key points of the debate on energy:
“Heat pumps reduce the amount of energy needed significantly but requires the heat pump industry to increase in size by a factor of 100 and the electrical distribution grid to deliver twice what it does today.
“Switching to hydrogen increases the amount of primary electricity required by 40% (compared to heat pumps) but is deliverable using much of the existing gas distribution and storage infrastructure (subject to modification).
“The UK’s clean electricity generation requirement is 1,050 Terawatt hours (TWh) per year if heat pumps are used and 1,480 TWh/year if hydrogen is adopted. That is a huge increase on 2019 ‘s clean generation of just 177 TWh of zero emissions electricity. Delivering this capacity by 2050 requires a Sizewell C power station (or equivalent) to be commissioned every year for the next three decades (or faster).
“The competing land use demands of solar PV, biomass, agriculture and reforesting need to be resolved. The current reforesting effort would sequester less than 2% of the UK’s 2019 emissions”
It is hard to disagree with the Committee on Climate Change’s conclusion that “achieving net-zero GHG emissions domestically prior to 2050 is not credible for the UK.”
One very interesting point he makes is: “Cars can run on batteries. Trucks cannot, as the battery weight impacts substantially on the payload. Instead they need to run on fuel cells, and that requires hydrogen. Charging the car batteries and processing the hydrogen requires further electrical generation, either from running the current power generators more of the time or installing more.”
He goes on to suggest biomethane as an alternative. His assessment has left me, at least, pessimistic due to a flood of information.
The more general point has to be why polticians appear to be pontificating and acting without possessing proper information. This is not just about energy. Ukraine is suffering from exactly that. Now Putin is threatening the West for supplying Ukraine with arms and in Brussels the question of possible NATO action is being debated.
Are we on the brink of World War Three or not? The information is unreliable to say the least. Optimists would say not, but some commentators gather proper information and this one at least is pessimistic.
Dateline: Corner Cafe, Deal, Kent.
Note: Patrick Benham-Crosswell is author of the book Net Zero
Title photo: Paulo Miretti.
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