Polls Predict Unprecedented Defeat for Sunak’s Conservatives in Upcoming UK Elections

Three recent opinion polls unanimously predict a significant defeat for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s Conservative Party in the upcoming UK general elections on 4 July. This forecast was reported by Reuters.

The polls suggest that the Labour Party is poised to secure a commanding majority after spending 14 years in opposition.

According to a YouGov survey, Labour is set to win 425 seats in the 650-seat House of Commons, which would be the highest in the party’s history.

Savanta projects an even more substantial victory for Labour with 516 seats, while More in Common estimates Labour will take 406 seats.

The YouGov poll gives the Conservatives 108 seats and the Liberal Democrats 67 seats.

In contrast, Savanta predicts the Conservatives will win 53 seats and the Liberal Democrats 50. More in Common anticipates 155 seats for the Conservatives and 49 for the Liberal Democrats.

Additionally, the Savanta poll, published by the Telegraph, indicates that Sunak could potentially lose his parliamentary seat in northern England.

The polls accounted for factors such as age, gender, education, and other voter data to forecast results in each UK constituency. This methodology has previously been used to accurately predict the outcomes of the 2017 UK general election.

The results largely align with earlier polls, which also predicted a Labour victory, but the scale of the projected Conservative defeat appears to be more severe than initially expected.

Moreover, the eurosceptic Reform UK party is gaining momentum and aims to surpass Sunak’s Conservatives ahead of the snap general elections.

Reform UK’s leader, Nigel Farage, who is renowned for his successful campaign to lead the UK out of the European Union, announced his return to politics and his candidacy for Parliament, bolstering the party’s prospects.

Despite this, the UK’s first-past-the-post electoral system means that Reform UK might garner millions of votes nationwide without securing any parliamentary seats.

YouGov forecasts Reform UK will win five seats, while Savanta suggests they will win none. More in Common did not provide data for Reform UK.

The impending elections on 4 July promise a seismic shift in the UK’s political landscape, with polls indicating a resounding defeat for the Conservatives and a potential landmark victory for Labour.

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