In the final days of Joe Biden’s administration, the United States and Armenia signed a Charter on Strategic Partnership, a move widely seen as a milestone in the evolving geopolitical landscape of the South Caucasus. This unprecedented document signals Washington’s intent to strengthen its influence in a region where its presence has waned in recent years.
A Remarkable Step Amid Complex Geopolitics
The signing of this charter is significant for several reasons. Armenia, a member of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and a country that has paused but not entirely severed its ties with the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO), is gradually reconsidering its geopolitical alignment. Armenia has recently signalled interest in exploring closer ties with the European Union, further complicating its relationship with Russia.
For the United States, the charter underscores its commitment to countering Russia’s influence in the region. Armenia’s evolving foreign policy, coupled with its strategic location bordering Iran and Turkey, makes it a pivotal partner for Washington. The partnership aligns with the broader US strategy of increasing its engagement in the South Caucasus to counterbalance Russian and Iranian influence.
The Role of Regional Actors
The South Caucasus is a region of overlapping interests for global powers. Russia and Iran are strengthening their strategic partnership, as evidenced by their forthcoming agreement—a pact reminiscent of recent Moscow-Pyongyang cooperation. The involvement of North Korean troops and military technology in Russia’s war against Ukraine highlights the tangible outcomes of such partnerships.
Against this backdrop, the US-Armenia agreement is a direct challenge to Moscow and Tehran. It is also a message to Turkey and Azerbaijan, underscoring the need for stability and a resolution to regional disputes, including the long-standing conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh.
Implications for Armenia-Azerbaijan Relations
The charter sends a signal to Azerbaijan about the United States’ interest in facilitating a peaceful resolution to regional tensions. Historically, Baku has relied on Turkey’s support, particularly under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. However, Ankara has recently shifted its rhetoric, advocating for mutually acceptable agreements.
The US move places additional pressure on Azerbaijan to avoid deepening its reliance on Russian mediation. Moscow’s strategy of exploiting disagreements between Armenia and Azerbaijan to strengthen its influence is well-documented. For Washington, fostering a peace agreement that includes the reopening of borders and trade routes would not only stabilise the region but also diminish Russia’s ability to act as a spoiler.
European Dimensions
France has been another prominent supporter of Armenia, often criticised by Azerbaijan for what it perceives as biased policies. However, the US, with its broader geopolitical clout, presents a different challenge for Baku. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev is unlikely to risk antagonising the new US administration under Donald Trump, especially during its early months.
Armenia’s potential pivot towards the EU adds another layer of complexity. While Yerevan’s interest in joining the EU reflects a shift in its priorities, it also invites resistance from Moscow. The Kremlin has historically leveraged its influence over Armenia’s political elite to derail such aspirations, as evidenced in 2013 when then-President Serzh Sargsyan abandoned an EU Association Agreement under Russian pressure.
Russia’s Position
Russia’s ability to counter these developments remains uncertain. With its resources stretched thin by the war in Ukraine, Moscow may find it challenging to exert the same level of influence over Yerevan. Statements from Russian officials that Armenia’s foreign policy shifts are its sovereign right echo similar rhetoric used before Ukraine’s pivot to the EU—a process that Moscow attempted, unsuccessfully, to derail.
In the coming months, Russia’s response to the US-Armenia charter will reveal its capacity to influence the South Caucasus. For now, the agreement highlights a reshuffling of alliances, with Armenia edging closer to the West and the US signalling its readiness to play a more active role in the region.
A Path to Regional Stability?
The US-Armenia partnership charter has the potential to catalyse broader regional changes. A peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan, coupled with the reopening of borders, could unlock economic opportunities and foster stability. However, achieving this will require careful diplomacy to ensure that neither Armenia nor Azerbaijan perceives the process as favouring the other.
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