Denmark’s Defence Intelligence Service (Forsvarets Efterretningstjeneste, FE) has issued a new threat assessment warning that Russia is preparing for broader military confrontations beyond Ukraine.
The report suggests that if the war in Ukraine ceases or becomes frozen, Moscow will have the capacity to redirect its military resources towards new conflicts, potentially posing a direct threat to NATO.
Russia’s Military Strategy: Preparing for a Larger Conflict
According to FE, Russia is undergoing significant military reforms aimed not only at sustaining operations in Ukraine but also at preparing for potential engagements with NATO countries. The intelligence service outlines three potential scenarios that could unfold if the war in Ukraine ends and NATO fails to sufficiently rearm:
- Within six months, Russia could initiate a limited military conflict with a neighbouring state.
- Within two years, Russia could become a credible threat to multiple NATO countries, particularly in the Baltic region, and be prepared for a regional war.
- Within five years, Russia could be ready for a full-scale war in Europe, potentially without direct U.S. involvement.
These projections hinge on the assumption that NATO does not significantly accelerate its own military build-up. FE warns that without a robust deterrent, Russia may view the alliance as weak and exploit the situation to expand its influence.
The Arctic and Hybrid Warfare: Russia’s Expanding Fronts
Beyond the European continent, FE highlights Russia’s growing ambitions in the Arctic, where it remains the dominant military power. The intelligence assessment points to Russian attempts to assert control over northern maritime routes and potentially extend its influence as far as the North Pole, in line with its updated naval doctrine from 2022.
Greenland and the Faroe Islands, both part of the Kingdom of Denmark, are seen as key strategic locations in this growing geopolitical contest. Intelligence officials warn that these territories could become focal points in a larger struggle between Russia, the United States, and China. Washington has shown increased interest in Greenland’s strategic importance, with former discussions on its potential purchase highlighting its relevance to U.S. security policy.
In addition to conventional military threats, the FE report underscores the increasing role of hybrid warfare in Russia’s strategy. Moscow does not perceive cyberattacks, espionage, and sabotage as actions that would trigger NATO’s Article 5 on collective defence. This means Russia could continue covert operations, such as disrupting undersea communication cables or employing its “shadow fleet” for illicit activities, without facing direct military retaliation.
The Role of the United States and NATO’s Response
The report also touches on the impact of U.S. foreign policy under President Donald Trump. Trump has indicated his intention to end the war in Ukraine and has questioned U.S. commitments to NATO allies that do not meet defence spending targets. This has introduced uncertainty into NATO’s deterrence strategy.
FE intelligence officials stress that Russia’s willingness to challenge NATO depends largely on the alliance’s unity and military strength. Any perception of division or weakness could embolden Moscow to test the alliance’s resolve. As Mads Korsager, DR’s defence correspondent, notes:
“Russia is advancing its military build-up much faster than previously expected, while Western rearmament is not progressing at the necessary pace.”
Anja Dalgaard-Nielsen, head of intelligence at FE, further emphasises that Russia is showing a growing willingness to test NATO’s limits, particularly at a time when the U.S. is prioritising an end to hostilities in Ukraine.
The uncertainty surrounding U.S. commitments to European security could create opportunities for Russia to expand its influence through military and hybrid means.
The Risk of a Broader War in Europe
While the report does not conclude that a large-scale war in Europe is inevitable, it warns that such a scenario is increasingly plausible if NATO does not reinforce its military posture. The findings indicate that European countries must accelerate their defence efforts to prevent Russia from exploiting weaknesses in the alliance.
FE’s assessment underscores the urgency for NATO members, including Denmark, to intensify military investments to maintain a credible deterrent. Analysts argue that only a strong and well-equipped NATO can prevent further Russian aggression.
The intelligence findings paint a picture of a volatile security landscape in which Europe, the Arctic, and global stability could be significantly impacted by Moscow’s strategic ambitions.
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