James Cleverly

Britain is home to more illegal migrants than any other European country, according to a recent study conducted by Oxford University researchers.

The study estimates that up to 745,000 illegal migrants reside in the UK, representing approximately one in every 100 people in the population. This figure surpasses that of both Germany and France, making the UK the leader in terms of undocumented migration within Europe.

Illegal Migration in Numbers

The study, published on 7 October 2024, estimates that there are between 594,000 and 745,000 illegal migrants in the UK. This is more than double the estimated 300,000 in France and ahead of Germany’s upper estimate of 700,000. To put the scale in perspective, the number of illegal migrants in the UK is equivalent to the population of Leeds.

The term “illegal migrants” encompasses several groups: individuals who have overstayed their visas, failed asylum seekers who have evaded deportation, and those who have entered the country illegally, often through small boat crossings across the English Channel. The findings were disclosed shortly after the Home Office revealed that 973 migrants crossed the Channel in 17 small boats on Saturday, marking the largest single-day figure of the year.

Rising Channel Crossings

In 2024, 26,612 people crossed the Channel in small boats, a 5% increase compared to the same period in 2023. However, this figure remains 21% lower than the record set in 2022, which saw 33,611 people make the dangerous journey. Despite the increase, the UK government remains under intense pressure to address the issue, particularly as tragic incidents continue to occur. On Saturday, four people, including a two-year-old boy, died while attempting to cross the Channel.

Political Responses and Reactions

The situation has reignited debate over the government’s handling of illegal migration. Senior Conservatives have urged Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer to reconsider his party’s approach after Prime Minister Keir Starmer scrapped a controversial plan to send asylum seekers to Rwanda for processing. The scheme, which aimed to deter illegal crossings, was met with widespread criticism but is still supported by some as a potential solution.

James Cleverly, the shadow home secretary, emphasised the need to deter illegal immigration and remove those who are already in the UK illegally. Robert Jenrick, the former immigration minister, echoed these sentiments, calling on Starmer to abandon Labour’s current strategy on small boat crossings. He also advocated for the UK to leave the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR), arguing that the country’s security is at risk.

The Role of People-Smuggling Gangs

At the heart of the crisis are people-smuggling gangs who profit from the perilous journeys made by migrants across the Channel. Labour has pledged to crack down on these gangs by creating a Border Security Command, modelled on counter-terrorism agencies, to work with European and G7 partners. This strategy, aimed at disrupting smuggling networks, would also grant UK law enforcement agencies new powers to tackle illegal immigration.

Sir Keir Starmer has rejected calls to leave the ECHR, which some believe would ease the UK’s ability to deport illegal migrants. French and European officials have made it clear that Britain’s chances of securing an EU agreement to return Channel migrants to France are contingent on its continued participation in the ECHR.

Illegal Migrants in the UK: A Complex Problem

The estimated 745,000 illegal migrants in the UK come on top of the 224,742 asylum seekers currently awaiting a decision on their claims. These include individuals who are appealing a rejection or have not yet exercised their appeal rights. Despite the significant number of undocumented migrants, the Home Office does not regularly publish data on the total illegal population, apart from those crossing the Channel.

Experts suggest that the high number of illegal migrants in the UK may be driven by the country’s larger black economy, compared to other European nations, and its reluctance to offer amnesties, as some countries do. The UK’s “hostile environment” policies, which make access to public services difficult for undocumented migrants, may also contribute to their decision to remain outside the formal economy.

Leaked internal estimates from the Home Office five years ago suggested that around 150,000 foreign nationals enter the UK illegally each year and subsequently disappear into the black economy.

Understanding the True Scale of the Issue

Oxford University’s research highlights the need for better data on the scale of illegal migration. Denis Kierans, senior researcher at Oxford’s Compas migration centre, emphasized the importance of having accurate figures, as these individuals are “living and working in the UK, but who are operating outside the mainstream tax and benefits system.” Understanding the scope of the issue would help policymakers develop more effective strategies for managing illegal migration.

The research is part of a broader effort to create a public database that tracks estimates of illegal migrants across European and North American countries. The hope is that by understanding the true scale of the issue, governments can develop policies that better address the challenges posed by illegal migration while ensuring border security and human rights are upheld.