U.S. President Donald Trump has reignited tensions within NATO by suggesting that Spain could be expelled from the alliance over its refusal to meet the newly agreed 5% GDP defence spending target.
The remarks, delivered during a meeting with Finnish President Alexander Stubb, expose a growing rift over burden-sharing and raise uncomfortable questions about the future of transatlantic security.
The 5% target, approved by NATO in June 2025, was intended to force European allies to shoulder a fairer share of collective defence costs. For Trump, it is a matter of principle: the United States cannot continue to guarantee European security while allies contribute only modestly.
Spain, however, has rejected the target. Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez emphasises that his country has already increased defence spending by 70% over the past decade and argues that meeting 5% would strain social services and domestic priorities.
Trump’s response was characteristically blunt. He labelled Spain’s contributions “notorious” and openly questioned its continued NATO membership. While such rhetoric may sound like hyperbole, it raises a real dilemma for the alliance: how should NATO handle a member that refuses to meet agreed targets while remaining committed to collective defence in practice? Spain insists that its operational contributions, missions, and strategic location in the Mediterranean already make it an indispensable partner.
NATO’s leadership has sought to temper the dispute. While endorsing the 5% goal, officials stress flexibility, recognising the diverse political and economic circumstances of member states. Contributions, they argue, should be assessed not just in financial terms but also by capabilities, operational readiness, and strategic value. Spain clearly meets these broader criteria, and expelling it could be catastrophic.
The consequences of removing Spain would be profound. A NATO without Spain would weaken the alliance’s southern flank, cede influence in the Mediterranean, and embolden adversaries. It could also trigger a dangerous precedent, encouraging other members to flout defence targets and eroding cohesion across the alliance.
This clash underscores a deeper problem: NATO’s unity rests on a delicate balance between shared responsibility and national reality. Trump’s transactional, America-first approach highlights the tensions between U.S. expectations and European capacities. Spain may not be on the verge of expulsion, but the dispute illustrates the fragility of the alliance when political imperatives collide with strategic necessity.
For NATO, the challenge is clear: maintain solidarity without alienating key members, and enforce spending commitments without undermining the very unity that ensures the alliance’s relevance in an increasingly unpredictable world.
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