China will impose provisional duties of up to 42.7 per cent on selected dairy imports from the European Union from Tuesday, 23 December 2025, widening a trade dispute that has run alongside Brussels’ restrictions on subsidised Chinese electric vehicles.
Beijing framed the move as the preliminary outcome of an anti-subsidy investigation into certain EU dairy products. The duties apply to a defined list that includes milk and cream as well as fresh and processed cheeses, including well-known protected-origin varieties such as Roquefort.
According to China’s Ministry of Commerce, the provisional measures will be collected in the form of cash deposits at the border, based on subsidy rates assigned to individual companies. Rates range from 21.9 per cent to 42.7 per cent, with most exporters facing tariffs around 30 per cent, while non-cooperating firms are subject to the highest level.
The lowest company-specific rate cited in the announcement was 21.9 per cent for Italy’s Sterilgarda Alimenti SpA, while entities linked to FrieslandCampina were among those facing the 42.7 per cent rate.
A new front in the EU–China trade confrontation
In Brussels and European capitals, the dairy decision is being read as part of a broader pattern of trade defence actions taken by both sides since the EU began moving against what it described as subsidised Chinese electric vehicles.
The European Commission initiated an ex officio anti-subsidy investigation into imports of battery electric vehicles from China in October 2023 and announced provisional measures in July 2024. European think-tank and policy commentary at the time described the EV case as one of the EU’s largest trade actions against China, with provisional duty bands set out during 2024.
China’s dairy measures sit alongside earlier Chinese investigations and duties affecting other EU exports. In recent months, Beijing has pursued cases involving EU brandy and EU pork, with the pork case resulting in definitive anti-dumping tariffs that were lower than earlier provisional rates. That sequence has prompted European industry groups to watch whether the dairy duties remain at current levels once China’s investigation concludes.
Scope, timing and market exposure
The tariffs apply to products within the investigation’s scope rather than to all dairy exports to China, and they exclude some categories that can dominate dairy trade in volume, such as certain powders and infant formula, depending on customs classification. The Ministry of Commerce said the measures follow a preliminary finding that EU subsidies caused “material injury” to China’s domestic dairy industry and that there was a causal link between the subsidised imports and the injury identified.
China’s domestic dairy sector has faced pressure from shifting consumption patterns and periodic oversupply. Beijing’s framing of the case is that subsidies in exporting countries have enabled imports at levels that harm domestic producers, a formulation that mirrors the language used in many countervailing duty investigations globally.
The economic exposure for Europe is meaningful but not among the EU’s largest export categories. China imported about $589 million worth of the dairy products covered by the investigation in 2024, broadly unchanged from 2023. The impact, however, is concentrated on companies and product lines that have built premium positions in the Chinese market, including cheeses with protected geographical status.
Legal and diplomatic backdrop
The dairy case has been contentious since its launch. The investigation was opened in August 2024, and in September 2024 the EU requested WTO consultations over China’s initiation of the probe, arguing that the case raised concerns under subsidy and countervailing measures rules. China later extended the investigation timetable, citing complexity.
The European Commission has criticised the evidential basis of the dairy decision, while China has presented it as a standard application of its trade remedy system. The parallel negotiations over electric vehicles continue, with periodic technical talks aimed at avoiding escalation into broader restrictions affecting additional sectors.
What happens next
Provisional duties are typically designed to apply while an investigation continues, and they can be adjusted in the final determination. The immediate practical effect is that importers in China must post deposits at rates tied to specific exporters or to residual categories, which can raise landed costs and alter ordering patterns quickly, particularly for chilled products and higher-value cheeses.
For EU dairy exporters, the next months are likely to turn on three factors: whether China revises rates in a final ruling; whether any negotiated settlement in the EV dispute spills over into other trade remedy cases; and whether WTO proceedings move beyond consultations into a panel stage. In the meantime, the decision adds another operational complication to EU–China trade at a time when both sides are already managing multiple concurrent disputes.
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