Russia Challenges NATO with Unilateral Baltic Sea Border Redefinition Proposal

The Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation has proposed altering Russia’s state maritime boundary in the Baltic Sea, affecting borders with Lithuania and Finland.

This change is intended to be made unilaterally, through the revocation of a 1985 decree by the Council of Ministers of the Soviet Union.

The Russian Ministry of Defence justifies this decision by citing changes in the geographical situation. However, it is evident that the proposal is politically motivated, continuing Russia’s so-called hybrid war against NATO member countries.

Details

The Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation’s proposal to unilaterally redefine maritime borders in the Baltic Sea involves altering the geographical coordinates that define the baselines from which Russia’s territorial sea width is measured.

Baltic Sea

For the border with Finland, this includes adjustments near the islands of Jähi, Sommers, Holland, Rodscher, Maly Tüters, Vygrund, and the northern entrance cape of the Narva River.

Along the Lithuanian border, changes focus on the Curonian Spit, Cape Taran, the cape south of Cape Taran, and the Baltic Spit.

The proposal argues that the existing coordinates, established by a 1985 Soviet decree, are outdated and do not reflect the current geographical situation, having been based on mid-20th century nautical maps.

Consequently, Russian Ministry of Defence seeks to partially invalidate this decree to “better represent modern geographical realities”.

Hybrid war

The hybrid war strategy initially involved redirecting migrant flows. Belarusian forces under President Alexander Lukashenko pushed migrants towards the borders with Poland and Lithuania.

Following Russia’s significant assault on Ukraine, Russia began using migrants to destabilise Finland’s borders, prompting Finland to completely close its border with Russia.

With the migrant strategy failing, Russia has turned to new provocations, such as the unilateral alteration of maritime boundaries.

This move is reminiscent of Soviet dictator Joseph Stalin’s demands for border changes with Finland, under similar pretexts of geographical changes. These demands were actually preparations for war and annexation.

Moscow’s current actions mirror those of the past, with President Vladimir Putin now orchestrating new provocations against neighbouring countries.

Russia has previously undertaken similar actions in the Black and Azov Seas. In 2014, following the occupation and annexation of Crimea and Sevastopol, Russia declared the surrounding waters, previously Ukrainian, as Russian territorial waters.

Despite international condemnation, Moscow continues to control these waters, leading to numerous conflicts with NATO member states.

In the Azov Sea, Russia exploited a bilateral agreement with Ukraine that allowed both countries to jointly administer the waters. This agreement was used as a pretext to occupy the Azov Sea basin, with Russian military vessels gaining proximity to Ukrainian ports, which are now occupied by Russia.

Swedish Army Chief: Putin Sets Sights on Gotland in the Baltic Sea

Sweden’s Chief of Defence, Mikael Bydén, has asserted that Russian President Vladimir Putin has his sights set on the Swedish island of Gotland in the Baltic Sea, aiming to control the strategic waterway.

Micael Bydén

In an interview with RND he stated, “Yes, I am certain that Putin has both eyes on Gotland. Putin’s objective is to gain control over the Baltic Sea. It is likely that he is also eyeing the Åland Islands. The Russians are closely monitoring the entrances and exits to the Baltic Sea.”

Bydén emphasised that controlling Gotland is synonymous with controlling the Baltic Sea. He highlighted that Putin’s desire to control Gotland is part of a broader strategy to dominate this crucial maritime region.

“We cannot allow this to happen. The Baltic Sea should not become Putin’s playground where he can intimidate NATO members,” he stated firmly.

Gotland, a key piece of Swedish territory, is under Sweden’s responsibility to defend, Bydén reiterated. He noted past reductions in military presence on the island, which once had only a voluntary National Guard unit.

However, the war in Ukraine has changed the political landscape in Europe, prompting Sweden to significantly bolster its military capabilities on Gotland.

“We now guard the island with permanently stationed units and deploy additional forces when the threat level increases,” Bydén explained.

He also mentioned that Sweden’s defence of Gotland includes the capability for offensive operations if necessary. “We are very interested in keeping the sea routes open and controlling what happens above and below the water’s surface. From Gotland, we can assist other NATO countries in maintaining security in the Baltic Sea. But if Putin invades Gotland, he could threaten NATO countries from the sea. That would spell the end of peace and stability in the Northern and Baltic regions,” Bydén concluded.

NATO’s Response

The situation in the Baltic differs due to NATO’s involvement and Finland’s recent accession to the alliance. NATO’s presence aims to deter Russia’s aggressive ambitions, recognising the Kremlin’s treacherous strategies.

The critical question now is how NATO will respond to Russia’s attempt to unilaterally alter the borders of its member states. Will there be mere statements of protest, new economic sanctions (which Russia often dismisses), or a military response to expel Russian naval forces from these waters, which, according to international law, belong to Lithuania and Finland?

If Russia finalises this decision, the international community, including President Putin, will learn the extent to which Western nations are willing to counter Russian aggression.

Recent events over the past decade have demonstrated that unchecked Russian aggression leads to further expansionist actions and continued hybrid warfare, which could easily escalate into full-scale conflict in the Baltic. Putin’s provocations are pushing towards such a dangerous escalation.

The international community is closely watching Russia’s moves. With NATO’s strengthened presence in the region, particularly with Finland’s recent membership, there is a heightened sense of vigilance.

The strategic importance of the Baltic Sea and the potential for conflict underscore the critical nature of this situation.

As the world waits to see how this will unfold, the key issue remains: how will NATO and its member states respond to Russia’s unilateral actions?

The decisions made in the coming weeks and months will be crucial in determining the stability and security of the Baltic region and, by extension, the broader international order.

Update

A draft law concerning the unilateral alteration of borders with neighboring states in the Baltic Sea, originating from the Russian Ministry of Defence, has vanished from the Russian government’s website.

According to reports from Russian service “Radio Svoboda” and “European Truth”, the draft law, which attracted attention from The Moscow Times on Tuesday, is no longer available on the government’s website. However, a copy of the project description remains in the archives, outlining the proposal submitted by the Russian Ministry of Defence for consideration.

As per accounts from Russian service “Radio Svoboda“, the draft law, which garnered interest from The Moscow Times on Tuesday, has been removed from the government’s website.

Nonetheless, an archived copy of the project description persists, delineating the proposal forwarded by the Russian Ministry of Defence for deliberation.

Main image: UNN