Reports have surfaced regarding a possible launch of Russia’s RS-26 Rubezh ballistic missile against Ukraine, raising significant concerns about escalating hostilities. This experimental missile, boasting a range of 2,000 to 6,000 kilometres, has yet to be deployed in combat. According to various sources, including Ukrainian parliamentarian Boryslav Bereza and war correspondent Andriy Plynko, preparations for its launch may be underway at the Kapustin Yar testing site in Russia’s Astrakhan region.
A Renewed Threat Amid Intensified Conflict
The RS-26, initially developed in the early 2010s, was designed to serve as a medium- to long-range ballistic missile capable of bypassing advanced missile defence systems. Officially, the programme was reportedly shelved in favour of other projects like the Avangard hypersonic glide vehicle. However, recent reports suggest that Russia may have covertly advanced its development and deployment capabilities. If the claims hold true, the RS-26 could become a new factor in Moscow’s strategy to exert psychological pressure on Ukraine and its Western allies.
Western embassies in Kyiv, including those of the United States, Spain, Greece, and Italy, have announced temporary closures for 20 November, citing security concerns. This precautionary measure suggests that Western intelligence agencies may be privy to the potential escalation.
What is the RS-26 Rubezh?
The RS-26 Rubezh is a ballistic missile with specifications that blur the line between intermediate and intercontinental ranges. It is designed to carry a warhead weighing up to 1,200 kilograms, a payload equivalent to three Iskander missiles combined. The missile achieves speeds of Mach 5 or higher, making it extremely difficult to intercept with existing missile defence systems like Patriot or NASAMS.
The development of the RS-26 contravenes the now-defunct Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, which prohibited missiles with ranges between 500 and 5,000 kilometres. The treaty’s collapse in 2019, triggered by alleged violations from both Russia and the U.S., removed restrictions on the deployment of such weapons. While the RS-26 has been considered experimental, its potential use in Ukraine could mark its debut in operational scenarios.
Propaganda or Real Threat?
Russia’s use of heavy ballistic missiles, particularly against civilian targets, has been a recurring element of its military strategy. However, the deployment of the RS-26 would signal a shift. Unlike the precision-guided Iskander missiles, the RS-26 is relatively untested and could lack accuracy, increasing the risk of collateral damage. Such an attack could cause significant destruction and potentially strike civilian infrastructure, further escalating humanitarian concerns.
Some analysts speculate that the reported preparations might be a disinformation campaign aimed at intimidating Ukraine and its Western supporters. However, the closure of multiple embassies suggests that Western governments are taking the threat seriously.
A Strategic Response to ATACMS Strikes?
The potential use of the RS-26 could be Russia’s response to recent developments in the conflict, including Ukraine’s use of American ATACMS missiles against Russian military facilities. Ukrainian strikes in Russia’s Bryansk region demonstrated the vulnerability of Russia’s air defence systems, with six out of eight ATACMS missiles reportedly hitting their targets. These strikes appear to have unnerved the Kremlin, leading to an escalation in nuclear and missile rhetoric.
Russian President Vladimir Putin recently revised Russia’s nuclear doctrine, suggesting that conventional attacks on Russian territory supported by nuclear powers could justify a nuclear response. While this is likely aimed at deterring further Western support for Ukraine, it also underscores the fragile and volatile nature of the current conflict.
Implications for Ukraine and Western Allies
If launched, the RS-26 could test Ukraine’s air defence systems to their limits. While systems like Patriot have proven effective against advanced missiles, they are not designed to counter intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM)-class threats. The RS-26’s high speed and unpredictable trajectory would pose a significant challenge.
For Ukraine’s Western allies, the deployment of the RS-26 would likely trigger a reassessment of their military and diplomatic strategies. The missile’s use would underline the need for further advanced air defence systems and possibly greater involvement in Ukraine’s defence infrastructure. NATO allies may also face renewed calls to provide direct military support to counter Russia’s growing reliance on experimental weaponry.
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