François Bayrou, a veteran of French politics and leader of the centrist MoDem party, has made history—but not the kind he might have hoped for. According to an Ifop survey for Le Journal du Dimanche, Bayrou is the least popular Prime Minister of the Fifth Republic just ten days into his tenure, with a record-low satisfaction rating of 34%. Meanwhile, 66% of respondents expressed dissatisfaction with his performance, a striking figure for a leader so early in his role.
A Troubled Start
Bayrou’s tenure began on 12 December, but his initial days at Matignon have been marked by controversy and perceived missteps. Despite his decades-long political career, including stints as Minister of Education and leader of a key coalition party, his early days as Prime Minister have been defined by turbulence.
His political capital took a hit almost immediately. Criticism has focused on his perceived indecisiveness in assembling a government, his decision to use a private jet to attend a municipal council meeting in Pau during a crisis over the cyclone-ravaged Mayotte, and a lack of clarity about his broader agenda as head of government.
Historic Levels of Unpopularity
Bayrou’s unprecedented unpopularity contrasts sharply with that of his recent predecessors. Michel Barnier, who faced his own challenges upon taking office in September, recorded a dissatisfaction rate of 55% shortly after his appointment. Gabriel Attal, operating under less contentious circumstances, stood at 46% disapproval, while Élisabeth Borne faced a 43% dissatisfaction rate in June 2022.
Going further back, the Ifop survey revealed that no Prime Minister since Michel Debré, appointed in 1959, has faced such high levels of discontent at the outset of their tenure.
Challenges in Forming a Government
A key test for Bayrou lies in his ability to form a cohesive government, which he promised to finalise before Christmas. However, assembling a cabinet that balances political diversity while maintaining credibility has proven to be a formidable task.
His attempts to build a cross-party coalition have seen mixed results. Laurent Wauquiez, a prominent figure within the right-wing Les Républicains (LR), declined Bayrou’s invitation to join the government. However, Bruno Retailleau, another key LR figure, is expected to remain in his post as Interior Minister. On the left, François Rebsamen, a former Socialist minister, expressed willingness to join the government, citing a longstanding relationship with Bayrou. Rebsamen’s defection to Emmanuel Macron’s camp in 2022, however, limits the political impact of his inclusion.
The Socialist Party, meanwhile, has rejected outright the idea of participating in Bayrou’s government. Olivier Faure, the party’s leader, voiced his dissatisfaction following discussions with Bayrou at Matignon, describing the proposed framework as lacking substance. Faure has also left open the possibility of pursuing a vote of no confidence against the new administration.
A Fragile Position
Bayrou’s start as Prime Minister has been marked by significant challenges, leaving him in a vulnerable position. Appointed to stabilise the government and foster cross-party collaboration, his early struggles have cast doubt on his capacity to achieve these goals. Critics point to his difficulties in forming a cohesive government as evidence of deep political divisions and uncertainty about his leadership.
With the year’s end approaching, Bayrou faces the critical task of rebuilding trust within his government and among the public. Success will depend on his ability to navigate the complexities of coalition-building and effective policymaking. However, his position remains fragile, with the prospect of a no-confidence vote looming.
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