The latest edition of the Belt & Road Monitor should be a wake-up call for Europe — and it is hard to see it as anything less.
China’s Belt & Road Initiative (BRI), once dismissed as little more than an infrastructure programme, has evolved into a comprehensive strategy of global influence, linking ports, railways, digital networks and narrative power into a single, tightly coordinated apparatus. And Europe? Too many Brussels bureaucrats still seem content to watch from the sidelines.
In September 2025 alone, Beijing committed nearly US$15 billion to new projects across Southeast Asia, Latin America, Africa and Central Asia.
But these numbers tell only part of the story. They obscure the fact that China is not just exporting roads and bridges — it is exporting influence, decision-making leverage, and control over the digital and industrial arteries of the 21st century.
Southeast Asia continues to attract the lion’s share of Chinese investment. Ports, railways, logistics hubs — they are no longer mere trade conduits. They are nodes of strategic alignment. Meanwhile, Beijing’s investments in upstream resources, such as the US$2 billion lithium brine project in Argentina, indicate that China intends to control the raw materials powering the green energy revolution. Add to that data-centre investments in Kazakhstan and elsewhere, and a pattern emerges: Beijing is consolidating both industrial and digital levers, leaving Europe increasingly on the back foot.
Even more concerning is the soft power overlay. The recent five-year media cooperation agreement between TASS and Xinhua may read as a minor information-sharing deal. In reality, it is part of a concerted effort to shape narratives, influence standards for AI and digital content, and cement China’s global vision. Europe’s response? Tepid commentary and a few modest grants, while Beijing sets the agenda.
Europe’s Dangerous Complacency
Herein lies the heart of the problem: Brussels is moving too slowly, and the European Commission appears unable — or unwilling — to act with the urgency required. The BRI is no longer about infrastructure; it is about shaping a global system on Beijing’s terms. Yet the EU remains mired in endless consultations, compromises and incremental measures that fail to challenge China’s momentum.
This is not merely a bureaucratic failing; it is a strategic risk. Every month that Brussels hesitates, China consolidates control over supply chains, raw materials, and digital networks. Europe’s industrial base, its ambitions in AI and green technology, its economic sovereignty — all are exposed to the consequences of inaction.
Take the lithium brine project in Argentina, or the data-centre initiative in Kazakhstan. If Europe does not move quickly to secure upstream access to critical minerals or to provide alternative digital infrastructure, it will be locked out of the foundations of the next generation of technology. And once these levers are in Chinese hands, reversing the dependency will be extraordinarily difficult, if not impossible.
Europe must treat the BRI not as a distant development programme, but as a strategic challenge akin to a geopolitical crisis. The Commission’s current pace — slow, ponderous, overly focused on internal consensus — is wholly inadequate. If Brussels continues to rely on long-term working groups, fragmented funding mechanisms, and voluntary alignment of member states, Europe will find itself permanently reactive. It will be responding to China’s moves, rather than shaping its own future.
The lesson is clear: speed, decisiveness and strategic coherence are now matters of survival. Europe cannot wait until China has entrenched influence across every critical corridor, from Latin America to Southeast Asia to Central Asia. Every delay strengthens Beijing’s bargaining position and erodes Europe’s freedom of action.
Europe must offer credible, high-quality alternatives to BRI projects. This means not simply loans or minor upgrades, but integrated, climate-aligned, and digitally resilient initiatives that can compete with China’s scale and speed. Partnerships with the UK, Japan, the U.S., and other like-minded states are essential. Europe must think in terms of strategic corridors, not piecemeal projects.
Furthermore, European states and companies must invest upstream in critical minerals, battery production, and advanced manufacturing. China’s lithium deals in Argentina are a warning: without immediate European action, key technologies of the future will be constrained by Beijing’s control of essential inputs.
Europe cannot cede digital standard-setting or narrative influence. The China-Russia media cooperation shows that control of information is now a pillar of strategic power. Brussels must take a proactive approach to AI standards, digital infrastructure, and open-access data governance, lest Europe become a spectator in a system built on Chinese terms.
The UK’s Role
Britain has an opportunity — if it acts. The UK’s expertise in engineering, finance, and regulation gives it a comparative advantage in building credible alternatives to the BRI. But speed is critical. While the European Commission dithers, the UK can quietly form partnerships, invest in upstream resources, and co-develop digital infrastructure with allied states. The future of industrial competitiveness and technological sovereignty depends on such action.
Take, for example, the US$7 billion Pakistan ML-1 railway upgrade. The project demonstrates China’s ability to consolidate influence at scale. Britain should seek to participate in or create parallel consortia that uphold Western standards of governance, climate responsibility, and digital security. Every delay risks forfeiting strategic space permanently.
The Risks of Complacency
Europe cannot afford to underestimate the stakes. Chinese BRI projects are not simply economic ventures; they are instruments of influence, shaping supply chains, data governance, and regional norms. Brussels’ slow pace, internal divisions, and bureaucratic inertia threaten to leave Europe trapped in a reactive posture, forced to respond to events rather than set them.
And yet, there is still time — but the window is closing. The execution of announced projects in Argentina, Kazakhstan, and Southeast Asia will soon move from planning to reality. Once Beijing has physical and digital control of these nodes, reversing dependency will be nearly impossible. Europe’s only chance is to act decisively and immediately.
The Belt & Road Initiative is no longer merely a series of infrastructure projects. It is a global strategy, bundling economic, digital, and narrative power in a manner that challenges European influence and sovereignty. The question is whether Europe — and the European Commission in particular — has the courage, speed, and vision to respond.
Deliberation and internal consensus are virtues in governance, but in this case they are liabilities. Brussels must stop treating the BRI as a distant economic programme and recognise it as a strategic challenge. Europe’s industrial, technological, and digital future depends on rapid, coordinated, and ambitious action.
China is moving with speed and purpose. Europe cannot afford to watch. If it hesitates, it will find itself locked out of the corridors of power, influence, and technology that will define the 21st century. The time for action is now.
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