François Bayrou has withstood two no-confidence motions in the National Assembly, granting him temporary relief. However, the French Prime Minister is likely to face further political turbulence in the coming months, particularly with a forthcoming debate on pension reform and the potential for another dissolution of parliament.
The motions, tabled by La France Insoumise and supported by the Communist and Green parties, were decisively rejected. This outcome provides some breathing space for Bayrou, but it does not eliminate the persistent threats to his administration.
A Temporary Respite
Without an alliance between the Rassemblement National (RN) and the Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP), it remains impossible to secure the 289 votes required to pass a no-confidence motion. This arithmetic has enabled Bayrou to push through both the state budget and the initial segment of social security reforms.
The Socialist Party (PS) has stated that it will not support any no-confidence motion during the budget cycle. This stance benefits the Prime Minister as he braces for two further motions concerning the second part of the social security budget.
Despite their opposition to the government’s budget, Socialists have acknowledged the necessity of passing one. “We are realistic; this is not a fair budget, but we need a budget,” Socialist MP Emmanuel Grégoire remarked during parliamentary debates.
A Motion Against Government Policy
Although the PS is refraining from immediate censure on budgetary grounds, it plans to introduce a separate motion on 19 February targeting Bayrou’s overall policy direction. This move comes in response to his comments on the “feeling of being submerged” by immigration, which have sparked criticism.
“We oppose the Trumpisation of this government,” PS leader Olivier Faure stated, dismissing suggestions that the motion would be a mere symbolic gesture. While the initiative is expected to gain the support of the entire NFP bloc, with 192 votes, it will still fall short of the 289 needed to topple the government.
Former President François Hollande, now a Socialist MP, downplayed the motion’s immediate impact. “This is not intended to bring down the government but to send a strong message,” he explained on national television.
A Fragile Political Landscape
Bayrou’s survival will depend on how the right-wing RN and MPs aligned with Eric Ciotti respond. Given that the upcoming motion is primarily driven by concerns over immigration rhetoric, it is unlikely that RN lawmakers will lend their support.
If Bayrou withstands this latest challenge, he will have two strategic choices. He could choose to focus on managing day-to-day affairs with minimal legislative risks, avoiding controversial policies that might provoke another confidence vote. Alternatively, he could press ahead with a legislative agenda, despite the political hazards.
Currently, the government’s primary legislative focus includes end-of-life care reforms, a cross-party issue, and a proposed immigration law for Mayotte, a long-standing demand from both Les Républicains (LR) and the RN.
Potential Collapse in the Summer
Timing will be crucial in determining Bayrou’s longevity. RN MP Sébastien Chenu has indicated that his party sees little benefit in triggering a crisis prematurely. “We will wait until the conditions for a dissolution are viable,” he said, noting that a new dissolution cannot occur before the summer. This suggests that Marine Le Pen’s party may bide its time before initiating a decisive no-confidence vote in June.
Pension reform could also serve as a catalyst for government collapse. The forthcoming social partners’ conclave on pensions is expected to conclude in the spring. Socialist leader Olivier Faure has warned that if the government circumvents parliamentary scrutiny, a no-confidence motion will be “on the table.”
Should the RN and NFP unite in opposition, Bayrou’s tenure would come to an abrupt end. A similar scenario unfolded in December when former Prime Minister Michel Barnier was ousted.
Yet, Bayrou remains optimistic. “Our goal is for the 2026 budget to be different from this year’s,” he declared in parliament. This statement suggests he is positioning himself to remain in office at least until December, when the next budget cycle begins.
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