Friedrich Merz has been confirmed as the new Federal Chancellor of Germany following the recent elections, marking the return of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its Bavarian counterpart, the Christian Social Union (CSU), as the leading political force.
The new government is expected to take shape through coalition negotiations, though the election results have also revealed significant shifts in Germany’s political landscape.
The Rise of the AfD as the Main Opposition
One of the most striking outcomes of the election is the emergence of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) as the country’s main opposition party. Despite being politically isolated both within Germany and among Europe’s radical right-wing parties, the AfD secured strong support, particularly in the eastern regions of the country. The party received endorsements from figures such as billionaire Elon Musk and certain members of the new US administration. However, rather than significantly boosting the AfD’s vote share, this external support appears to have contributed to a resurgence of radical left-wing politics.
Die Linke, the far-left party, achieved one of its strongest results in history, securing representation in the Bundestag. Its electoral success was largely concentrated in the eastern states, particularly in the former German Democratic Republic (GDR) regions. Nonetheless, AfD’s dominance in these areas was even more pronounced. In all the eastern states except Berlin, AfD emerged as the leading political force, underscoring a stark political divide between the former East and West Germany. This division highlights the lasting impact of decades of governance under a communist system, a pattern observed not only in Germany but across former Soviet republics and socialist states.
Coalition Talks and the End of the ‘Traffic Light’ Government
The election results also signal the collapse of the outgoing ‘traffic light’ coalition led by Olaf Scholz’s Social Democratic Party (SPD), which included the Greens and the Free Democratic Party (FDP). Internal conflicts plagued the coalition, preventing it from completing a full term. Voters punished almost all parties involved, with the SPD losing half of its Bundestag representation. The FDP, which had previously withdrawn from the coalition, suffered an even worse fate, failing to pass the parliamentary threshold. The Greens, however, managed to maintain their presence in parliament.
The failure of the traffic light coalition has paved the way for the return of a ‘grand coalition’ between CDU/CSU and the SPD. However, such an arrangement would now be formed under very different conditions compared to past CDU-led governments. Olaf Scholz is unlikely to retain leadership within the SPD, and Defence Minister Boris Pistorius is considered a likely successor.
Challenges for Merz’s Government
While Angela Merkel was known for her pragmatic leadership and ability to maintain cohesion within coalitions, Friedrich Merz represents a different political approach. Negotiations with the SPD will not be straightforward, and the longevity of a potential grand coalition remains uncertain.
Merz campaigned on the need for Europe to strengthen its political independence, particularly in security matters. He has emphasised the importance of discussions with France and the UK on a new European nuclear defence framework, particularly given concerns over US foreign policy shifts under Donald Trump’s administration. Should Washington alter its commitments to European security, Germany’s government will need to reassess its defence strategy alongside its European partners.
Beyond security policy, the new German government will face pressing economic challenges. The country has struggled with sluggish growth, energy supply concerns, and the broader economic impact of the ongoing war in Ukraine. Germany’s role as Europe’s largest economy makes its stability crucial for the continent’s economic resilience.
Geopolitical Pressures and European Stability
Germany’s leadership will also be tested by growing geopolitical instability. The election results suggest that polarisation within Germany is deepening, with the simultaneous rise of both far-right and far-left movements. This trend mirrors broader shifts across Europe, where centrist parties are struggling to maintain dominance.
Externally, Germany must navigate pressure from both the United States and Russia. While Washington and Moscow have vastly different strategic goals in Europe, both exert influence that could contribute to political and economic instability. Germany’s role in supporting Ukraine will be a key issue, with expectations for Berlin to continue military and financial assistance to Kyiv while balancing internal political pressures.
