The Netherlands faces a cliff-edge finish after Wednesday’s snap parliamentary election, with D66 and Geert Wilders’ PVV effectively tied as the count nears completion.
With almost 98 per cent of votes tallied early on Thursday, D66, led by Rob Jetten, holds a narrow lead of roughly 2,300 ballots over the PVV. On current projections both parties stand on 26 seats, leaving the identity of the largest party unresolved.
The election was called after Mr Wilders withdrew his support for the government of Prime Minister Dick Schoof, triggering an early return to the polls. Voting took place on Wednesday 29 October. An initial exit poll released when stations closed at 21:00 suggested D66 would finish first with 27 seats, with the PVV close behind on 25. As the night progressed and more districts reported, the margin tightened. The latest provisional forecast puts both parties on 26 seats, with D66 ahead by only a few thousand votes.
The result represents a clear setback for the PVV. Mr Wilders described the outcome as “a significant loss”, noting that his party won 37 seats at the previous election. While late-arriving tallies could still shift a seat either way, the PVV looks set to return to the new Tweede Kamer with a substantially reduced presence compared with its last showing.
The picture elsewhere is also moving. Frans Timmermans announced that he would step down as leader of GroenLinks-PvdA. According to exit polling, the left-wing alliance is on course to lose five seats. His departure opens a contest for the leadership at a moment when the bloc will be weighing its influence in the next parliament and any coalition talks that may follow.
Seat allocations remain provisional until the final official tally confirms national vote shares. Under the Netherlands’ system of proportional representation for the 150-member Tweede Kamer, small changes in the vote can alter the final distribution, especially when parties are clustered around the same quotient. With D66 and the PVV currently level on seats and separated by only a few thousand votes, the identity of the largest party—and therefore the first mover in exploratory talks—could hinge on the final batches of ballots.
For D66, a first-place finish would hand Mr Jetten the initiative to open consultations and test the ground for a coalition. For the PVV, finishing first even with reduced numbers would preserve the symbolic advantage of leading the process, though a second-place finish would complicate that claim. In either case, the arithmetic points to complex negotiations. No single party is close to a majority, and recent experience suggests that building a workable coalition will require agreements across multiple partners with differing policy priorities.
The campaign was conducted under the shadow of government collapse and questions about stability. D66 pitched itself as a pro-European, socially liberal party focused on governance and economic certainty. The PVV emphasised its long-standing positions on immigration and national identity, while also seeking to address cost-of-living concerns. The narrowing gap through the night indicates that late-reporting areas and differential turnout patterns played a role in closing the early exit-poll margin.
Attention now turns to the final count and the formal allocation of seats. If the current projection holds, the next parliament will open with two parties tied at the top on 26 seats apiece, followed by a fragmented field in which mid-sized and smaller parties together hold the balance. The immediate question is which leader will be invited to start exploratory talks and whether that person can assemble a majority around a coherent programme.
Whatever the final ordering, the outcome signals a reset in the Dutch political landscape. The PVV’s loss of ground from 37 seats to the mid-20s reduces its leverage compared with the previous cycle. D66, if confirmed as marginally ahead, would claim the mantle of largest party for the first time in a decade. GroenLinks-PvdA faces a leadership transition after an underwhelming performance. Other parties, depending on their final tallies, may find themselves courted by both sides.
With the race so close, parties are holding their public lines while waiting for the definitive figures. The final certification will settle the question of who is entitled to make the first call in coalition-building. What is already clear is that the new government, however it is formed, will emerge from a finely balanced electorate and a legislature in which compromise will be essential.
Netherlands votes in cliff-edge election dominated by immigration and housing
