The Kremlin has intensified its diplomatic and informational campaign aimed at Europe, taking advantage of ambiguities in U.S. policy towards Ukraine as President-elect Donald Trump’s administration approaches.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports that Moscow has been reinforcing its stance through a series of high-level engagements, primarily targeting key European allies of Ukraine with narratives that favour Russian interests in any potential peace negotiations. The ISW analysis suggests that these actions represent a strategic attempt to sway Western decision-making at a critical juncture in global diplomacy.
Strategic “Reflexive Control”
ISW analysts highlight that Moscow is engaging in what is termed “reflexive control”—a method of manipulating foreign decision-making by shaping perceptions and interpretations. Through phone calls and other diplomatic channels, high-ranking Russian officials have pressed narratives aiming to frame continued Western support for Ukraine as detrimental to long-term European stability. The aim appears to be fostering an impression that Ukraine’s resistance could end sooner if Western allies urged Kyiv towards peace on terms Moscow favours.
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s recent phone call with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is a prime example of this tactic. According to ISW, Putin reiterated core Kremlin talking points in this discussion, encouraging European leaders to consider early peace negotiations.
Scholz’s engagement with Putin drew criticism from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who called the conversation a “Pandora’s box,” warning that such discussions empower Russia’s strategic objectives by helping Putin secure his position on the world stage and weaken international pressure on Moscow.
Leveraging Uncertainty in U.S. Foreign Policy
ISW’s analysis further reveals that Russian leaders are positioning themselves to take advantage of uncertainty within U.S. foreign policy, particularly around support for Ukraine. As Trump prepares to assume office, Moscow appears focused on pre-emptively shaping Western positions. Kremlin statements, including those from Defence Minister Sergey Shoygu and National Security Secretary Andrey Belousov, have reiterated Russia’s insistence that any peace terms meet Russia’s objectives, namely Ukraine’s capitulation on disputed territories. By stressing these terms, the Kremlin likely seeks to solidify a favourable negotiation framework while the incoming U.S. administration’s policy remains undefined.
In light of this, the Kremlin’s timing in increasing pressure on Europe suggests a calculated effort to use the U.S. political transition to Moscow’s advantage. ISW analysts suggest that Moscow hopes to prompt Europe to question the continuity of U.S. support for Ukraine, potentially eroding the steadfast Western support Kyiv has enjoyed since the conflict began.
Western Reactions and Continued Support for Ukraine
Despite the Kremlin’s intensified campaign, the West has largely remained committed to supporting Ukraine. The European Union, NATO, and other allied platforms have continued to extend military, economic, and diplomatic aid to Kyiv. Nonetheless, Russia’s campaign poses a potential challenge, especially for nations grappling with the economic impacts of sustained military assistance.
Zelensky’s reaction to the Putin-Scholz exchange highlights Ukraine’s concern that these engagements could lead to peace discussions that undermine Ukrainian sovereignty. Kyiv insists that any negotiations be based on a full restoration of Ukrainian territorial integrity. Western leaders have repeatedly reaffirmed support for these principles, though ISW suggests that Russia may seek to create rifts within Europe by casting Ukraine’s resistance as a source of prolonged regional instability.
Broader Implications for European Security
The Kremlin’s push for peace on its terms reflects a broader strategy of asserting control over the narrative in European and U.S. policy circles. By framing itself as a reasonable actor open to negotiation, Russia seeks to shift responsibility for the ongoing war onto Kyiv and its allies, deflecting blame for the continued violence. This messaging aligns with Russia’s long-standing efforts to position itself as a counterbalance to NATO influence in Europe, portraying its interests as essential to regional stability.
Moscow’s tactics of pressuring Europe through diplomatic channels and targeted messaging present a complex challenge. Should European leaders waver in their support for Ukraine, even symbolically, it could risk altering the current dynamics of the war. Furthermore, the Kremlin’s renewed efforts to break out of its diplomatic isolation highlight its broader ambition of normalising relations with Western powers, a move that would likely strengthen Russia’s position in any eventual negotiations.
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Putin’s Goal Isn’t Peace, But to End His Isolation, Says Zelensky
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