Today, October 13th, Lithuanians head to the polls to elect a new parliament, with two major issues dominating the campaign: the rising cost of living and growing fears of Russian aggression.
These elections come at a crucial time for the Baltic nation, which finds itself grappling with inflation, economic inequality, and national security concerns. While the opposition Social Democrats are projected to win the most votes, no party is expected to secure a majority, leaving the future shape of the government unclear.
Economic Woes Dominate the Campaign
The outgoing centre-right coalition, led by Prime Minister Ingrida Šimonytė of the Homeland Union party, has seen its popularity plummet in recent years, largely due to the country’s economic struggles. Lithuania, like much of Europe, has been hit hard by inflation, which reached over 20% two years ago.
The steep rise in prices has stretched household budgets and intensified dissatisfaction with the government’s handling of the economy. As a result, many voters are frustrated by what they see as deteriorating public services and a widening wealth gap between the rich and poor.
For many Lithuanians, these economic issues have taken centre stage in the election.
Polls suggest that the Social Democrats, who have positioned themselves as defenders of social welfare and economic equality, are set to win around 18% of the vote. The party has focused on promises to address the rising cost of living, invest in public services, and reduce inequality, appealing to voters who feel left behind by the current government’s policies.
In contrast, Šimonytė’s Homeland Union, which led the centre-right coalition for the past several years, is projected to win just 9% of the vote. While the party has tried to highlight its efforts to stabilise the economy and manage the fallout from global inflationary pressures, many voters have grown disillusioned with the status quo. The coalition’s handling of the cost-of-living crisis, coupled with underinvestment in public services, has taken a toll on its popularity.
The Rise of Anti-Establishment Politics
The election also highlights the growing support for anti-establishment parties in Lithuania. Nemunas Dawn, an emerging political force, is expected to secure around 12% of the vote. The party has capitalised on public discontent with traditional political elites, tapping into frustration over economic inequality and dissatisfaction with mainstream politicians.
While not expected to lead the next government, Nemunas Dawn’s rise could complicate coalition-building efforts and reshape the political landscape.
The eventual composition of Lithuania’s next government will depend on how smaller parties perform. If the Social Democrats fall short of a majority, as expected, they will likely need to form a coalition with other parties, which could include a mix of center-left, liberal, or even anti-establishment forces. This leaves open questions about the direction Lithuania will take on key issues like economic recovery, social welfare, and public sector reform.
National Security: A Major Concern
While the economy has been a dominant issue, national security concerns loom large over the election. Lithuania, as part of NATO and the European Union, shares borders with Russia’s Kaliningrad exclave and Belarus, a close ally of Moscow. Given these geopolitical realities, many Lithuanians are deeply worried about potential military threats from Russia.
A recent poll conducted by Baltijos Tyrimai and ELTA in May found that three-quarters of Lithuanians believe Russia could attack their country in the near future. This concern has been amplified by Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine, which has unsettled the region and heightened fears of further Russian aggression in Eastern Europe.
Despite their differences on domestic issues, Lithuania’s main political parties are united in their stance on national security. All major parties support Ukraine in its fight against Russian forces and advocate for increased defence spending to bolster Lithuania’s security. This consensus reflects the broader sentiment in Lithuania that the country must remain vigilant in the face of potential threats from its powerful neighbor to the east.
Election Results and Future Prospects
Polling stations opened early on Sunday at 7 a.m. local time (0400 GMT) and will close at 8 p.m. (1700 GMT), with official results expected after midnight.
While the Social Democrats are expected to emerge as the largest party, the fragmented nature of Lithuania’s political landscape means that coalition negotiations will be crucial in determining the shape of the next government.
For now, Lithuanians wait to see how their votes will shape the future of their country, hoping for a government that can tackle both the pressing economic challenges and the national security risks that define this moment in Lithuania’s history.
Main Image: Door Lukas Bartkus – Eigen werk, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=131857683
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