As NATO leaders prepare to gather at the Hague next week, a new consensus is emerging across Europe’s military and strategic class: Eastern Europe must now earn the security guarantees it has long enjoyed. The era of free riding is coming to an end – and fast.
In a pointed warning ahead of the summit, defence analysts from across the Atlantic alliance have urged governments in Central and Eastern Europe to match rhetoric with resolve. While the spectre of Russian aggression has made eastern capitals more vocal on deterrence than their western counterparts, analysts argue that persistent underinvestment in hard power—especially outside Poland and the Baltics—risks undermining credibility at the precise moment the region seeks to lead.
The bar has been set: 5 per cent of GDP on defence by 2035. That figure, once unthinkable, is now the benchmark, particularly as the United States makes clear it will no longer subsidise Europe’s security in perpetuity.
Poland Leads, Others Lag
The contrast between words and action is most obvious in the disparity between Poland and its neighbours. Warsaw, already spending over 4 per cent of GDP on defence and fast approaching 5 per cent, has emerged as the de facto military power of the eastern flank. Its recent $6.5 billion tank deal with South Korea, local production lines and artillery stockpiling stand in stark contrast to the more cautious postures of Hungary, Slovakia and Bulgaria.
While all 18 Eastern and Southern EU states named by the European Commission have formally applied for funding under the newly created Security Action for Europe (SAFE) programme, the size and seriousness of their bids vary significantly. Poland has requested over a third of the total SAFE fund—more than €50 billion in low-interest loans for defence procurement and reindustrialisation. Others, such as Cyprus and Croatia, are seen by Brussels officials as attempting to secure optics rather than capabilities.
In Warsaw, the ambition is unmistakable. “We do not want to be dependent on the goodwill of others,” Deputy Prime Minister and Defence Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz said bluntly last week. “Security is not charity.”
SAFE Money, Serious Expectations
The SAFE programme, a €150 billion facility of subsidised loans backed by the EU budget, is Brussels’ clearest admission that Europe must now foot its own defence bill. Designed to allow joint procurement of air defences, drones, artillery and logistics enablers, it includes not only EU member states but also Ukraine and external security partners, such as the UK.
Unlike previous schemes, however, SAFE comes with implicit expectations. Countries must demonstrate credible defence plans, commit to interoperability and, crucially, follow through on procurement timetables. “There’s a difference between filing an application and buying real capabilities,” one senior Commission official told EU Today.
If the old model was about cohesion, the new model is about results.
Trump’s Shadow
The sense of urgency is sharpened by American disengagement. Donald Trump’s return to the White House has accelerated a shift that was already underway. His administration’s blunt message—that Europe must defend itself—has now been internalised in Brussels, Berlin and beyond.
The realisation that the U.S. might not come to Europe’s aid automatically in the event of conflict has forced a long-overdue reckoning. What was once seen as alarmist is now policy.
The Hague Summit is expected to endorse a new Defence Readiness Initiative, calling on NATO members to be able to field operationally ready brigades within 30 days. For countries like Estonia or Romania, that means stockpiles, trained troops, and rapid logistics—no longer just hosting U.S. troops or staging exercises.
The Commission’s hope is that the SAFE fund can bridge the investment gap, but funding alone is not enough. Political will, procurement reform, and defence-industrial coordination are equally critical—and all, thus far, unevenly spread.
The Franco-German Dilemma
While Eastern Europe focuses on urgency, the Franco-German core remains preoccupied with sovereignty. Both Paris and Berlin have been wary of overreliance on non-European equipment—particularly U.S. or South Korean systems—and prefer to channel spending into long-term EU-based programmes like the Future Combat Air System (FCAS).
But time is a luxury Europe no longer has. And Eastern capitals are increasingly impatient with what they see as a slow, strategic navel-gazing from Western Europe. “We need weapons, not white papers,” a Latvian defence official remarked drily.
That frustration has translated into action. The Baltic states are stockpiling munitions at record levels. Finland, newly inducted into NATO, is rapidly integrating its command structures and procuring long-range missiles. Romania has quietly increased its defence budget for three consecutive years.
Even traditionally cautious Bulgaria has begun upgrading its fleet of Soviet-era equipment with Western systems.
A New European Divide?
What is emerging is a new continental divide—not between East and West ideologically, but between those who prepare and those who prevaricate.
Eastern Europe, forged by the trauma of Soviet occupation and the fresh threat of Russian revanchism, is more clear-eyed about the stakes. But clear eyes must now be matched with cold steel.
NATO, once a comfort blanket, is becoming a conditional pact. As one senior analyst in Brussels put it, “Security is no longer guaranteed by geography. It’s earned by credibility.”
Poland may be doing more earning than most. Others have catching up to do.
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READ ALSO: POLAND ARMS FOR A NEW ERA AS WARSAW INKS $6.5 BILLION TANK DEAL
In a move that underscores both Warsaw’s growing military ambitions and the shifting tectonics of European defence, the Polish government has signed a $6.5 billion agreement with South Korea’s Hyundai Rotem for the purchase of 180 K2 Black Panther tanks—61 of which are to be assembled domestically.
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Main Image: wikimediacommons>Silar Posted in Polish Land Forces
