Nearly two years after the September 2022 explosions that severely damaged the Nord Stream 1 and 2 gas pipelines in the Baltic Sea, German prosecutors have issued an arrest warrant for a suspect believed to be involved in the sabotage.
The suspect, identified as Volodymyr Zhuravlyov, a Ukrainian national and civilian diving instructor, has reportedly vanished from his residence near Warsaw, Poland. This latest development has reignited interest in an investigation that had seemingly stalled.
The explosions, which crippled critical infrastructure supplying Russian gas to Europe, particularly Germany, initially sparked global speculation. The Nord Stream pipelines were central to Europe’s energy strategy, especially for Germany, which had become heavily reliant on Russian gas. With mounting geopolitical tensions over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the sabotage marked a dramatic escalation in the energy war between Russia and the West. While suspicion initially focused on various international actors, the issuance of the arrest warrant has brought renewed scrutiny to the potential involvement of Ukrainian operatives.
Investigative Background and Ukrainian Suspicions
The investigation into the Nord Stream sabotage has been mired in complexity, with multiple narratives emerging. Mykhailo Gonchar, President of the Centre for Global Studies “Strategy XXI,” commented on the evolving situation in an interview to Radio NV. Gonchar noted that the initial investigations by Germany, Sweden, and Denmark quickly dismissed the possibility of Russian involvement, despite the pipelines being of Russian origin. Instead, the investigation began focusing on alternative actors, notably Ukraine, despite earlier reluctance to fully explore the “Ukrainian trail.”
The new evidence points to Volodymyr Zhuravlyov, a Ukrainian diving instructor, and his alleged involvement in the sabotage. This theory has been bolstered by reports from Western media, including a comprehensive investigation by Spiegel last summer, which was further corroborated by investigations from Die Zeit, ADR, and SWR. The picture was later refined by The Wall Street Journal, which, drawing on Ukrainian sources, published an article that shed new light on the operation. These reports suggest that the sabotage may have been carried out by a small team using a rented yacht named Andromeda. According to this narrative, detailed in publications such as Der Spiegel, the team allegedly placed explosives on the Nord Stream pipelines at a depth of 70-80 meters—a depth far beyond the capability of civilian or recreational divers.
Gonchar noted that the technical demands of such an operation are significant. Only highly trained military or special forces divers would be capable of performing an operation at such depths.
“We are talking about 80 meters below the surface, not 10 meters. Only special forces with specific training in underwater demolition could undertake this mission,” Gonchar said.
He added that this aspect of the operation alone suggests state-level involvement.
Reports from the 2023 investigation by Denmark’s DR, Norway’s NRK, Sweden’s SVT, and Finland’s Yle broadcasters have highlighted unusual Russian naval activity near the Nord Stream pipelines in the months leading up to the sabotage. The investigation, highlighted in the documentary series Putin’s Shadow War and the podcast Cold Front, uncovered suspicious movements of Russian naval vessels, referred to as “ghost ships,” near the explosion site between June and September 2022.
These ships, including the Russian naval research vessel Sibiryakov and the tugboat SB-123, had their transmitters turned off but were tracked using intercepted communications with Russian naval bases. Sibiryakov, a vessel capable of underwater operations, is suspected of being involved in placing explosives on the pipelines. Satellite imagery also placed SB-123 in the area just days before the blasts.
Though the investigation stoped short of definitively linking Russia to the explosions, it raised significant questions about the unusual naval activity surrounding the site in the months leading up to the incident.
Could Russia Still Be Behind the Explosions?
Despite the media’s emphasis on potential Ukrainian involvement, Russia had both the motive and capability to orchestrate the Nord Stream explosions to advance its geopolitical agenda. For years, Russia has wielded energy as a strategic tool to exert influence over Europe, with the Nord Stream pipelines serving as a key component of this leverage by bypassing Ukraine and Poland to supply gas directly to Germany.
With the war in Ukraine intensifying and relations with Europe deteriorating, Moscow may have seen an opportunity to destroy the pipelines for several reasons:
1. Weaponising Energy to Punish Europe: Russia could have viewed the destruction of the Nord Stream pipelines as a way to deepen Europe’s energy crisis and punish Germany for its support of Ukraine. By cutting off a key source of energy, Moscow would be sending a message that Europe remains vulnerable to Russian influence.
2. Avoiding Legal Liabilities: Facing numerous lawsuits and financial penalties for failing to meet its gas supply obligations, Gazprom could have benefitted from creating a “force majeure” situation through the sabotage. This would relieve the company from the financial burden of these penalties by arguing that the destruction of the pipelines was beyond its control.
3. Destabilising European Unity: The explosions contributed to a deepening energy crisis across Europe, potentially creating divisions among EU member states with varying degrees of reliance on Russian gas. Russia may have hoped that this destabilisation would weaken European resolve to support Ukraine in the conflict.
While Ukrainian involvement is now under closer scrutiny, the possibility of Russian orchestration remains plausible. Russia’s longstanding use of energy as a geopolitical weapon, its potential motives for destabilising Europe, and the unusual activity of Russian military forces in the region continue to fuel speculation. Whether this sabotage was an act of Ukrainian defiance, a Russian ploy to escalate the energy crisis, or a carefully crafted disinformation campaign, remains an open question.
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