This target was originally set out almost two decades ago, and the UK is one of the few countries to have delivered on it every year. In 2022, only 9 of the 30 NATO allies met the target. This “Free riding” has been much criticised – with Germany, Europe’s largest economy – being particularly singled out.
Donald Trump, when President, threatened that the U.S. might “go its own way” unless allies shouldered their responsibilities.
The Prime Minister will argue that meeting this 2% commitment – which must be a floor not a ceiling – is crucial to NATO’s ongoing ability to deter and defend against the kind of tactics Putin has used in Ukraine.
“When thousands of Russian troops crossed the border in February last year, it marked a grim new chapter in Europe and NATO’s history.In the 500 days that have elapsed since we have witnessed the most terrible crimes and human tragedies in Ukraine. But we have also seen the NATO alliance come together like never before in support of Ukraine and with firm determination that Russia cannot succeed.
“That is work we need to continue this week. We cannot let the fog of war obscure the clear lessons our alliance must learn if we are going to outpace and outmanoeuvre those who seek to do us harm. That is why the UK is investing record amounts in defence, to make our Armed Forces more lethal and more deployable, and to ready our defence industry ready for the challenges ahead. And that’s something we need to see across NATO – starting with meeting the 2 per cent commitment, – Rishi Sunak.
Evidence suggests European NATO members are increasing defence spending.
European NATO members’ defence spending in 2022, as collected in the recently released volume The Military Balance: 2023, provides three pieces of evidence that “defy the free-riding critique.”
- Sixteen NATO members (over half the Alliance) increased their defence spending in 2022 relative to 2021 in current US dollars. This was after significant increases in European defense spending in 2021. Europe was an exception to the global norm here, as global military spending declined by roughly 2 percent in 2021 and 2022, according to The Military Balance.
- In 2022, twelve NATO members increased their defence spending as a percentage of GDP. For example, Lithuania increased its defense spending from $1.3 billion to $1.5 billion (in current US dollars) and as a percentage of GDP from 2.07 percent to 2.34 percent. Given the aforementioned economic headwinds and other budgetary demands (such as pandemic expenditures and economic stimulus), increasing defence spending as a percentage of GDP was extremely challenging in fiscal and political terms. For example, the United States increased defence spending from $759 billion in 2021 to $766 billion in 2022, but defence spending as a percentage of GDP declined from 3.3 percent in 2021 to 3.06 percent in 2022.
- An additional seven NATO governments have pledged to raise defence spending as a percentage of GDP in the near term: the Czech Republic, Denmark, Italy, Latvia, Norway, Poland, and Romania. For example, in March 2022, Latvia’s cabinet approved an increase in defence spending from 2.2 percent to 2.5 percent of GDP by 2025.
