Salvador Illa Leads Spanish Socialist Party to Victory in Catalonia

In Sunday’s Catalan elections, the Spanish Socialist party, led locally by Salvador Illa, emerged with the largest share of the vote, marking a significant setback for over a decade of separatist rule in the wealthy northeastern region and for the lingering aspirations of independence held by some.

The Socialists secured 42 seats in the 135-seat chamber, based on more than 99% of the vote tallied.

Following closely behind was the hardline separatist party Junts, with 35 seats, while the incumbent, more moderate separatist party, Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya (ERC), obtained 20 seats.

The conservative People’s Party, Spain’s largest opposition party, also made notable gains, increasing its seat count from three to 15 since the previous vote in 2021. Despite these political shifts, voter turnout was notably low at 58%.

The outcome of the elections poses a significant challenge to separatist governance in Catalonia, which spearheaded an illegal independence referendum and declaration in 2017, triggering Spain’s most severe institutional crisis in decades.

However, the separatist movement has experienced waning momentum and internal divisions in recent times.

The election result also reflects the controversial efforts by Spain’s Socialist Prime Minister, Pedro Sanchez, to normalize relations with Catalonia, including granting pardons to individuals convicted in connection with the independence drive and proposing a contentious amnesty for others still facing legal proceedings.

Salvador Illa, speaking following the conclusion of vote counting, characterized the outcome as heralding a “new era” for the region.

Nevertheless, with no single party securing a clear majority and deep ideological schisms among them, the possibility of a repeat vote looms.

The separatist bloc, comprising ERC, Junts, far-left CUP, and far-right Aliança Catalana, lacks the requisite 68 seats to form a coalition government.

For Illa’s Socialists to govern, they will likely need to broker an agreement, most plausibly with ERC. However, separatist parties have thus far rebuffed any overtures from the national ruling party to participate in governing Catalonia.

In a departure from conventional alliances, Illa might explore forming a coalition with the far-left Sumar, his national government coalition partner, as well as with the conservative People’s Party and far-right Vox, despite longstanding assertions by the Socialists that they would not engage in negotiations with the latter two parties.

Following the election, Pere Aragonès, leader of ERC and Catalonia’s outgoing president, indicated that his party would assume an opposition role, effectively ruling out support for the Socialists.

Carles Puigdemont, leader of Junts, acknowledged his party’s strong performance but cited low turnout among separatist voters and limited options in the absence of significant support from ERC, Aliança Catalana, and CUP.

Puigdemont had previously signaled that failure to secure victory and the potential alliance between the Socialists and People’s Party to govern Catalonia could prompt him to withdraw support from the minority national government, a move that could reintroduce instability at the national level.

Political analyst and historian Joan Esculies observed that regardless of subsequent developments, the election’s primary outcome was the diminishment of Catalan separatist sentiment, noting that the movement has struggled to advance persuasive or mobilising initiatives as effectively as in the past.

Main Image: Salvador Illa, via Twitter/X