Russia has expanded a fleet of ageing oil tankers operating under opaque ownership to move crude outside Western restrictions, with the so-called “shadow fleet” now accounting for roughly 17% of the world’s in-service oil and product tankers. Industry data indicate the fleet reached about 940 vessels at the start of 2025, an increase of around 45% year on year.
The growth has been driven by Europe’s embargo on seaborne imports of Russian crude and refined products and the G7/EU price-cap regime introduced in late 2022. To reach buyers in India and China and to reduce exposure to Western services controlled by the cap, operators have relied on older ships, flags of convenience, non-Western insurance or no insurance at all, and irregular reporting of positions to obscure cargo origin.
According to S&P Global Market Intelligence, which tracks vessel movements and ownership structures, the shadow fleet consisted of 940 unique ships as of May 2025 and represented about one-sixth of the global tanker market. The expansion from mid-2024 was material and reflected continued purchases of elderly tonnage by intermediaries linked to Russia, Iran and Venezuela.
Western governments have sought to close gaps. On 18 July 2025, the EU agreed an updated package that overhauled enforcement of the oil price cap, replacing the fixed USD 60 ceiling with a floating cap set at 15% below the average market price, while blacklisting additional tankers suspected of sanctions circumvention. The European Commission has separately detailed its energy sanctions architecture, including the embargo on Russian seaborne crude and products.
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Ukraine has urged partners to intensify measures against the fleet, with Kyiv highlighting recent listings of ships and entities it says support Russia’s wartime economy. In mid-September, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy welcomed a sanctions package he described as a “strong blow” to Russia’s shadow fleet, citing action against dozens of tankers and companies.
Independent monitoring suggests Russia’s reliance on non-G7 shipping has increased during periods of tighter enforcement. The Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air reported that in August 2025 just over half of Russia’s seaborne oil exports moved on G7-controlled tankers, down eight percentage points from July, implying greater use of shadow tonnage.
Analysts and maritime authorities describe several hallmarks of the trade. Ships frequently reflag to jurisdictions with limited oversight; ownership is layered through shell companies; and Automatic Identification System (AIS) signals are intermittently disabled or manipulated around sensitive trans-shipment points. These practices complicate due diligence for insurers, banks and port authorities and raise risks of collisions and spills, particularly as many vessels are beyond typical commercial age profiles.
S&P Global’s shipping datasets indicate that the shadow fleet’s carrying capacity has grown alongside vessel counts. By September 2025, S&P estimated about 978 tankers—some 18–19% of global capacity—were engaged in sanctioned trades associated with Russia, Iran and Venezuela, underscoring ongoing market adaptation despite enforcement measures.
Policy responses have focused on services denial rather than interdiction at sea. The revised EU approach targets price-cap compliance by tightening attestations, expanding due-diligence obligations for shippers and traders, and blacklisting individual hulls. Similar steps by the UK, US and partners aim to restrict access to marine insurance, classification and port services where there is evidence of cap breaches or origin obfuscation. Early indications suggest higher freight rates and longer voyage times on Russia-to-Asia routes as compliant tonnage exits and shadow operators price in enforcement risk.
However, enforcement remains uneven. Investigative reporting has highlighted continuing gaps in beneficial-ownership transparency and in monitoring of ship-to-ship transfers. Market analysts note that while sanctions have compressed Russia’s netbacks at various points, the persistence of the shadow fleet has preserved substantial export volumes, with many trades conducted outside Western services and, therefore, beyond the price-cap’s reach.
The scale of the fleet has broader implications for maritime safety and for energy markets. Older, minimally insured tankers engaged in long-haul voyages present environmental and liability risks for coastal states and ports of refuge. At the same time, the availability of such tonnage affects freight costs and price differentials for grades such as Urals, influencing refinery economics in Asia and the Middle East. Whether the latest EU package—together with partner measures—reduces that footprint will be assessed in coming months as regulators test the floating cap and expand ship-specific designations.
In summary, industry data point to a shadow fleet equal to roughly one in six tankers worldwide at the start of 2025, built to keep Russian oil flowing despite restrictions. The fleet’s size, methods and risks are now central to the next phase of sanctions enforcement and to the stability of seaborne oil markets.
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