European Union countries remain divided over the bloc’s planned 2040 climate target, casting doubt on ministers’ intention to seal a deal on 18 September and raising the risk that the EU will miss a mid-September deadline to file updated plans with the United Nations ahead of COP30.
A fresh compromise text circulated on 9 September shows outstanding political disagreements on key design elements of the target.
At issue is a legally binding goal to cut net EU greenhouse gas emissions by 90% by 2040 compared with 1990 levels. The European Commission’s proposal allows a limited share of that target to be met by purchasing international carbon credits, a departure from the EU’s current focus on domestic reductions alone. The Commission suggested permitting credits equal to three percentage points of the 2040 target, starting in 2036, but those figures are bracketed in the latest draft—signalling that member states have not agreed them.
The compromise text, dated 9 September and drafted by Denmark, states that the “level, timing and conditions” for using international credits require a political decision. EU ambassadors are due to examine the document on Friday, 12 September, ahead of the ministerial meeting the following week. Copenhagen, which holds the rotating Council presidency, continues to seek a consensus.
Positions among capitals remain far apart. France, Poland and the Czech Republic favour delaying an agreement and escalating the issue to national leaders, according to the draft. Other countries want to fix the percentage share and start date for credits now, arguing that clarity is needed for investment planning. The presidency text keeps options open while flagging the matter for ministers.
International credits are the central fault line. Supporters say a small allowance could cut compliance costs and provide finance for mitigation projects outside Europe. Critics warn that credits risk weakening domestic action and complicating enforcement. The Commission’s July Q&A sets out the 3% ceiling “from 2036” as an exceptional, limited contribution within EU climate law; non-government analyses have since highlighted how differing interpretations of the 3% metric could alter the environmental outcome.
Beyond credits, the draft adds language committing the EU to assess the impact of future climate measures on industrial competitiveness when designing policy. That reflects pressure from several governments to anchor cost and competitiveness tests as part of implementing legislation under a 2040 framework.
Timing is tight. The EU needs to communicate updated climate plans—its next nationally determined contribution under the Paris Agreement—in September so that the UNFCCC can include them in its synthesis assessment for COP30 in Belém, Brazil (10–21 November 2025). If ministers cannot agree next week, officials warn the bloc could struggle to meet the submission window. The Council adopts the EU’s NDC, following political agreement among member states.
The 2040 target would amend the EU Climate Law and then guide sectoral measures through the next decade. While the European Parliament will ultimately legislate with the Council on implementing files, the immediate task for governments is to settle parameters that determine the balance between domestic cuts and external flexibilities, and to define accompanying safeguards for industry.
What happens next: ambassadors’ discussions on 12 September will indicate whether the presidency can table a landing zone for ministers on 18 September. The outcome will turn on three linked choices—how large any credit contribution can be, when it can start, and what conditions (quality criteria, limits by sector, and review clauses) apply. Any delay would likely push the question to EU leaders and complicate the bloc’s COP30 positioning.
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