Recent events have highlighted the Kremlin’s increasingly aggressive hybrid warfare strategy, encompassing missile strikes, nuclear posturing, and covert sabotage. From the shocking missile attack on Dnipro to the severing of undersea cables in the Baltic Sea, these actions are not isolated incidents but part of a coordinated effort to pressure Ukraine, destabilise NATO, and exploit Europe’s vulnerabilities.
From Deterrence to Intimidation: The Dnipro Strike
On 21 November, Russia launched an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) strike on Dnipro—a brazen act that underscores Moscow’s shift from deterrence to outright intimidation. This escalation follows the playbook outlined in From Deterrence to Intimidation (“От сдерживания к устрашению”), a book authored by Kremlin insiders Sergey Karaganov and Dmitry Trenin, alongside former Admiral Sergei Avakiants. Their recommendations advocate for an escalatory ladder of aggression, with nuclear threats and targeted conventional strikes as tools to coerce NATO and undermine Western support for Ukraine.
The timing of the Dnipro strike is telling. It occurred shortly after President Vladimir Putin oversaw strategic nuclear drills on 29 October, followed by the public presentation of the book on 30 October.
The “escalation ladder” outlined by Trenin, Karaganov, and Avakiants includes the following steps:
New book ‘From Deterrence to Intimidation’
Targeting NATO Drones Over the Black Sea
Destroying drones and other aerial vehicles operated by NATO countries in the Black Sea region to demonstrate control over critical areas.- Strikes on Western Troops in Ukraine
Attacking Western military contingents that enter Ukrainian territory, thereby raising the stakes for direct NATO involvement. - Disabling U.S. and NATO Satellites
Degrading or destroying space-based reconnaissance assets to blind Western intelligence capabilities. - Strikes on NATO Airfields
If Ukrainian Air Force planes are based on NATO territory, launching strikes—initially with non-nuclear munitions—against those airfields. - Non-Nuclear Attacks on Military and Political Targets
Conducting strikes on military and logistical facilities in nations actively supporting Ukraine, followed by symbolic strikes on political sites, such as government and parliamentary buildings. - Cutting Undersea Cables
Progressively severing undersea communication cables, starting in the Baltic Sea and subsequently extending into the Atlantic, to showcase Russia’s military-technical capabilities.
On 11 November, in an interview with Kommersant, Nikolai Patrushev, head of Russia’s Maritime Collegium and a presidential aide, explicitly pointed to Americans and Britons as targets, stating that “new infrastructure objects, including undersea fibre-optic cables that provide global communication, may come under attack.”
These are, in essence, overt messages to Europe about Russia’s intentions.
This choreography is not coincidental. Moscow’s message is clear: it is willing to escalate tensions to test NATO’s resolve.
Admiral Rob Bauer
Yet, this nuclear brinkmanship may be backfiring. Admiral Rob Bauer, Chair of NATO’s Military Committee, recently suggested that the alliance should no longer limit itself to defensive measures. Instead, he proposed considering precision strikes against Russian military infrastructure if Russia escalates aggression. Bauer’s remarks signal a significant shift in NATO’s posture and a recognition that waiting to counter an attack is no longer sufficient.
Sabotage in the Baltic: A Theatre of Hybrid Warfare
While the missile strike grabbed headlines, another form of hybrid warfare played out in the Baltic Sea. On the night of 17–18 November, two undersea fibre-optic cables were severed, disrupting vital communication links between Sweden, Lithuania, Finland, and Germany. This incident mirrors the sabotage of the Balticconnector gas pipeline in October 2023, where a Chinese-flagged vessel with a Russian crew was implicated.
The pattern is undeniable. Both incidents involve critical infrastructure targeted by covert operations, echoing the recommendations in From Deterrence to Intimidation. The Kremlin understands the strategic importance of undersea cables and pipelines, and these attacks are calculated attempts to disrupt NATO’s operational capacity and test Europe’s response mechanisms.
This time, European authorities acted more decisively. A suspect vessel was detained near the Kattegat Strait by Danish forces. However, the recurring nature of these incidents highlights the region’s vulnerabilities and the Kremlin’s willingness to exploit them.
The Baltic: Russia’s Strategic Soft Spot
The Baltic Sea is both a stage for Moscow’s hybrid tactics and a critical artery for its economy. Russian oil exports flow through ports in the Gulf of Finland, providing a lifeline for the Kremlin’s war budget. Limiting or blocking this traffic would deliver a severe economic blow to Moscow. This is precisely why Baltic nations, including Sweden, Finland, and Lithuania, are increasingly advocating for measures to restrict Russian oil shipments.
Legal frameworks such as the 1857 Copenhagen Treaty, which guarantees free passage through the Baltic, complicate efforts to impose restrictions. Yet, the urgency of the situation demands a fresh approach. Baltic states, backed by NATO allies, must establish a security framework to protect critical infrastructure and restrict Russian maritime activities.
Europe’s Urgent To-Do List
Russia’s actions demand a robust and immediate response. Europe cannot afford to delay, given the Kremlin’s open declaration of its intentions. The following measures should be prioritised:
- Secure Undersea Infrastructure
Advanced monitoring systems, including sonar and autonomous underwater vehicles, must be deployed to protect critical cables and pipelines. NATO should coordinate efforts to ensure comprehensive surveillance of the Baltic Sea. - Enhance Regional Maritime Cooperation
Baltic nations must lead the establishment of a regional security framework, involving joint naval patrols, intelligence sharing, and rapid-response capabilities. - Impose Economic Pressure
The flow of Russian oil through the Baltic is a critical vulnerability. Targeted restrictions on this traffic, implemented by Baltic and Nordic nations, would significantly undermine Moscow’s financial capacity to sustain its war. - Counter Hybrid Threats
NATO and the EU must enhance their ability to counter non-conventional threats, such as cyberattacks and sabotage. This requires investment in technology and closer integration of military and civilian defence strategies. - Prepare for Preemptive Strikes
NATO should develop operational plans for precision strikes against Russian assets, ensuring that escalation by Moscow is met with a decisive and immediate response.
The Kremlin’s Calculations
The missile strike on Dnipro and the sabotage in the Baltic are part of a calculated strategy to intimidate Europe and exploit divisions within NATO. These actions are designed to stretch Western resources, delay decisive action, and undermine public support for Ukraine. The Kremlin is betting on hesitation and inaction from Europe and its allies.
However, Russia’s reliance on intimidation is also a sign of weakness. The Kremlin’s hybrid tactics reveal its inability to achieve its goals through conventional means. This is an opportunity for Europe to demonstrate its resilience and unity by countering these threats with coordinated, decisive measures.
Conclusion: Europe Must Not Wait
The time for deliberation has passed. The Baltic Sea has become a theatre of hybrid warfare, and the consequences of inaction are too great. NATO and the EU must move beyond rhetoric and implement concrete measures to secure critical infrastructure, limit Russian aggression, and protect regional stability.
Russia’s escalatory tactics are not only an attack on Ukraine but a direct challenge to European security. A united and proactive Europe can send a clear message to Moscow: hybrid threats will not succeed in dividing or weakening the West. The Kremlin thrives on hesitation—now is the time to act.
