Kishinev: Moldova’s political future is once again in the spotlight, as three European leaders – French President Macron, German Chancellor Merz, and Polish Prime Minister Tusk – will arrive in Kishinev in a careful display of support for the country’s pro-European government.
The high-profile visit comes just weeks before Moldova heads into what observers are calling the most consequential elections in a generation.
The European leaders’ message is clear, strong and direct: Moldova’s future lies in Europe, but only Moldovans can decide to claim it.
For many Moldovans, the upcoming September vote is more than a contest between political parties. It represents a strategic choice over whether the country will deepen its integration with the EU or risk pivoting back toward Moscow’s orbit.
The September elections are widely described as the most consequential in a generation. At stake is not only the political balance in Kishinev but also the country’s long-term trajectory in a volatile geopolitical environment. For the first time in decades, citizens of Moldova are being asked to make a stark and strategic choice: anchor firmly to the European Union or risk drifting back into Russia’s orbit.
A Nation Between Two Worlds
Moldova has lived both realities. Over the past decade, citizens have experienced governance by both pro-European and pro-Russian administrations, each leaving behind contrasting legacies. That lived experience makes this election less about abstract geopolitics and more about concrete outcomes: wages, energy bills, infrastructure, and a sense of security.
The economic data is unequivocal. More than 60 percent of Moldova’s trade flows through the EU, a reality that extends even to the separatist enclave of Transnistria, whose industries quietly depend on access to European markets. For households and businesses alike, Europe is less a political choice than an economic lifeline.
Between 2020 and 2023, Moldova’s industrial production surged from 59.6 billion lei to 87.6 billion lei, marking a 46.8% increase, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics.
By contrast, in the four years prior to President Maia Sandu’s administration (2016–2020), industrial growth stood at just 24.6%.
Wages have also kept pace. The average gross monthly salary rose by nearly 38% in the same period, climbing from 8,979 lei to 12,355 lei. Key growth sectors include industry (+36%), information and communications (+38%), financial and insurance services (+52%), and professional, scientific, and technical activities (+37%).
Today, Moldova is pivoting toward a more dynamic framework, centered on foreign and domestic investment and the expansion of export-driven industries.
Even Igor Dodon, Moldova’s most pro-Russian politician, has recently conceded that without EU financial support, the country has little chance of sustaining growth. Should Moldova turn eastward politically, he argued, financing would have to be sought from Moscow or Beijing. This acknowledgment reflects the bind facing pro-Russian forces: their geopolitical narrative is out of step with Moldova’s economic fundamentals.
Moscow’s Disinformation Playbook
Yet numbers alone cannot neutralize narratives. Russian propaganda has adapted swiftly to Moldova’s shifting political landscape. Today, its central claim is that a pro-European choice is synonymous with war—that deeper integration with Brussels will inevitably entangle Moldova in Russia’s ongoing confrontation with the West.
While the assertion is demonstrably false, it taps into a genuine anxiety in Moldovan society: the fear of instability. By weaponizing that fear, Moscow hopes to undermine confidence in Moldova’s European path and depress turnout among undecided voters.
The Road Ahead
The next chapter for Moldova will be written at the ballot box, guided solely by the will of its citizens. The September elections are shaping up less as a contest between political parties than as a referendum on Moldova’s strategic identity.
For the EU, the outcome will either consolidate a partner on its eastern flank or reopen a corridor of vulnerability.
For Moscow, a pro-Russian victory would offer a symbolic foothold in a region where its influence is steadily eroding.
For Moldovans, however, the decision is more intimate. It is about whether their children will grow up in a country defined by European stability and opportunity, or one navigating the uncertainties of dependency on Russia and China.
The stakes could hardly be higher. The world is watching. And for Moldova, the margin of choice has never been narrower.
By appearing side by side with Moldova’s pro-European government, Merz, Macron, and Tusk reassure the public that the country is not facing its challenges in isolation. More importantly, they underline that EU membership is not a distant dream but a tangible possibility, contingent on political will and electoral choices.
The EU leaders’ – Mertz, Macron, and Tusk – message to Moscow is clear: Europe will not passively watch as Moldova becomes another pawn in Russia’s geopolitical chess game. By investing political capital in Kishinev, EU leaders are making it clear that the stakes are continental, not merely local.
