The European Commission has indicated that the European Union could admit new members as early as 2030, citing sustained reform efforts in several candidate countries.
Presenting the EU’s annual enlargement package in Brussels, Commission Vice-President Kaja Kallas said expansion was in the Union’s strategic interest and that a 2030 timeline was now a “realistic goal” if candidates maintain momentum.
The report identifies Montenegro as the most advanced of the current candidates. Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos told MEPs that Podgorica had consolidated its lead position and continues to meet negotiating benchmarks at pace. Albania was praised for what the Commission called “unprecedented progress”, while Moldova’s “accelerated” reforms were noted despite security pressures linked to Russia’s war against Ukraine.
Ukraine was commended for advancing on key reforms under wartime conditions, though the Commission underlined the need to preserve the independence of anti-corruption institutions and to avoid any reversal of gains. The annual assessment highlights concerns raised in July over moves that would have increased the Prosecutor General’s influence over specialised anti-corruption bodies; Kyiv subsequently withdrew the measure following domestic criticism and partner feedback. The Commission’s message is that reform momentum must be sustained and backsliding avoided, particularly on the rule of law.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy welcomed the findings, describing them as Ukraine’s strongest assessment to date and urging “decisive action” from the EU to remove “artificial obstacles”. His remarks reflect Kyiv’s aim to advance talks despite Hungary’s continued blocking of formal steps in Ukraine’s accession process.
Moldova’s progress was also underlined, with the Commission noting continued movement on judicial and administrative reforms while navigating regional pressures. The executive’s view is that Chişinău has maintained reform tempo despite persistent external interference risks.
By contrast, the Commission delivered a strong rebuke to Georgia, stating that “serious democratic backsliding” had relegated the country to the status of a candidate “in name only”. Kos described Tbilisi’s assessment as the worst enlargement report issued for any candidate since the current framework was established. The critique focuses on rule-of-law erosion and restrictions on fundamental rights, alongside political moves targeting opposition parties.
Serbia was criticised for a slowdown in reforms central to its accession path. While the report acknowledges prior alignment in some areas, Brussels notes that recent trends have not matched commitments, adding to long-standing issues around democratic standards and normalisation of relations with Kosovo.
The enlargement package reiterates that membership remains a merit-based process governed by fulfilment of the Copenhagen criteria and the acquis. It also reflects a wider debate within the Union on institutional readiness to absorb new members. Recent discussions among EU capitals have included possible internal reforms—such as decision-making changes—to ensure a larger Union can function effectively. The Commission, however, emphasises that internal adjustment and external accession can proceed in parallel.
On timelines, officials in Brussels stopped short of fixed dates for entry, but framed the coming years as an operational window if both sides deliver. Montenegro remains the closest to completion of chapters and clusters; Albania is assessed as moving forward across the rule-of-law track and economic convergence; Ukraine and Moldova are encouraged to consolidate judicial reforms and anti-corruption safeguards as negotiations advance. The Commission’s position is that credible progress by candidates will be matched with support and, where necessary, targeted conditionality.
The report’s publication comes amid continuing debate over how to handle accession files affected by intra-EU political objections. Hungary’s stance on Ukraine’s talks has slowed formal steps, though the Commission and several member states argue that technical work can continue while political blockages are addressed. For candidates, the key messages are continuity on reforms, judicial independence, media freedom and the fight against corruption.
Set against a deteriorating security environment, the Commission’s assessment confirms that enlargement remains a central policy track. With the 2030 horizon now described as attainable for those meeting conditions, the next months will test candidates’ capacity to sustain reforms and the Union’s ability to advance files despite internal divisions.
