Chinese and European carmakers will square up at IAA Mobility in Munich next week, with organisers reporting a sharp rise in Chinese participation and European incumbents readying a slate of higher-volume electric models. The show, Europe’s largest biennial industry gathering, runs from 9–14 September, with a press day on 8 September.
The backdrop is shifting market power. European brands have ceded ground in China amid an extended price war, while Chinese manufacturers — constrained by US market access and seeking margins overseas — are accelerating in Europe. Gartner’s Pedro Pacheco summed up the mood: “It’s Europe versus China.”
According to Germany’s auto lobby VDA, Chinese exhibitors at IAA are up roughly 40% on 2023. “China is not only back, but more present than ever,” said Jan Heckman of the VDA. Chinese groups on the floor include BYD, Changan, GAC and FAW’s Hongqi.
Market share data reflect the same trajectory. JATO Dynamics figures indicate Chinese brands nearly doubled their share in Europe in early 2025: 4.8% for January–July, and 5.1% for the first half. BYD’s European registrations through July rose about 290% to more than 84,000 units, underscoring the speed of the advance. McKinsey analysts say Chinese brands could eventually reach shares comparable to Japanese and Korean makers in Europe.
Trade policy forms part of the frame. EU countervailing duties on Chinese-built battery-electric cars, in force since October 2024, range up to an effective 45.3% depending on manufacturer, with rates including BYD at 17.0%, Geely at 18.8% and SAIC at 35.3%. Brussels and Beijing have discussed alternatives such as minimum-price undertakings, but tariffs remain in place.
Chinese brands will use Munich to set out their European strategies. Hongqi plans to show its EHS5, EHS7 and EHS9, while Chery will introduce its Omoda and Jaecoo marques in Germany. BYD — which sold around 4.2 million vehicles globally in 2024 — is highlighting its premium Denza line and the Seal 6 DM-i Touring plug-in hybrid estate.
For European manufacturers, Munich is a chance to reassert on home turf with series models aimed at volume segments. BMW will debut the iX3 SUV, the first in its Neue Klasse family. Renault will unveil the sixth-generation Clio to showgoers in Munich’s city-centre Open Space. Mercedes-Benz will present the all-electric GLC as the first in a new EV generation. Volkswagen is set to preview the ID.Polo, a compact hatch the company targets at below €25,000 when it launches in 2026. As McKinsey’s Harald Deubener observed, this year’s IAA carries more product weight for European brands than recent editions.
Analysts expect a focus on pricing, software and speed to market. Chinese brands have leveraged cost structures and vertically integrated battery supply to compete on price, while European groups are accelerating product cycles and attempting to close gaps in software-defined vehicle platforms. BMW’s Neue Klasse architecture and Mercedes-Benz’s upcoming EV generation are intended as anchor technologies for that shift.
Despite policy headwinds, industry consultants say Chinese momentum in Europe is unlikely to reverse quickly. “Tariffs will not stop the Chinese,” said Xing Zhou of AlixPartners, noting that with the US market effectively closed, Europe remains a focal point. Phil Dunne at Stax added that legacy manufacturers will have to adapt to sustained competition.
IAA Mobility’s organisers emphasise the event’s split format: the trade-focused Summit at Messe München from 9–12 September, and the public Open Space across central Munich through 14 September. Attendance and product news will be watched for clues to the near-term direction of Europe’s market — in particular whether mass-market EVs priced under €30,000 can gain traction quickly enough to blunt the appeal of new entrants.
However the week unfolds, the balance of advantage in Europe’s car market is in flux. European manufacturers are signalling a pivot toward affordable, higher-volume electrified models, while Chinese competitors are seeking to translate rapid domestic scale into share on the continent. The Munich stage will test both strategies and indicate whether Europe’s incumbents can stabilise their position as new challengers deepen their presence. Investors and policymakers will scrutinise pricing, localisation plans and battery supply chains closely.
