Brussels has warned EU governments to prepare for a potentially extended shock to energy markets, with diesel and jet fuel identified as the most immediate risks ahead of an emergency meeting of ministers.
The European Commission has warned EU member states to prepare for a potentially prolonged disruption to energy markets as the war involving Iran continues to unsettle fuel supply chains and push prices higher. In a letter dated 30 March, Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen told national ministers that governments should make timely preparations for the risk of a sustained shock.
The warning comes ahead of an informal video conference of EU energy ministers on Tuesday, 31 March, listed on the Council’s official calendar. The meeting reflects growing concern in Brussels that the conflict’s effect on global fuel flows is turning into a policy problem for Europe, even though the bloc does not rely heavily on the Middle East for most of its crude oil and natural gas imports.
European gas prices have risen by more than 70% since the US-Israeli war on Iran began on 28 February. Jørgensen’s letter said the EU’s more immediate vulnerability lies in refined petroleum products, especially diesel and jet fuel. He urged governments not to take measures that would raise fuel consumption, restrict trade in petroleum products or reduce incentives for European refineries to keep output high. The letter also said member states should defer non-emergency refinery maintenance.
This is not the first warning from Brussels. On 19 March, the Commission said it had convened the Oil Coordination Group with EU countries to review the security of oil supply, with particular attention to diesel and jet fuel in light of the disruption in the Middle East. That earlier discussion showed that the Commission was already focusing on the product side of the market rather than only on crude.
The International Energy Agency has made a similar assessment. In its March oil market reporting and related analysis, the IEA said diesel and jet fuel markets were especially vulnerable to an extended loss of Middle East production and exports, and noted that member countries had already agreed on a 400 million barrel emergency stock release on 11 March. The agency also said disruption to flows through the Strait of Hormuz had become a major issue for energy security, affordability and the broader world economy.
For the EU, the problem is not simply where its molecules come from. Eurostat says Norway was the largest supplier of gaseous natural gas and petroleum oils to the bloc in 2025, while the United States was the largest partner for LNG imports. That reduces direct exposure to Gulf crude and gas. But it does not insulate Europe from global price formation or from pressure in the market for refined products, where shortages and higher freight costs can feed through quickly to transport, aviation and industrial activity.
The issue is therefore moving beyond foreign policy and into economic management. Higher fuel costs would affect households, airlines, logistics operators and energy-intensive industry, while also complicating the EU’s competitiveness agenda. Brussels has already been balancing its long-term objective of ending dependence on Russian fossil fuels with the short-term need to contain price shocks. That balancing act has become harder as the Iran war adds pressure to global markets.
