European and Iranian diplomats convened in Geneva on Friday to explore the potential for renewed negotiations aimed at de-escalating tensions in the Middle East. The discussions come ahead of Donald Trump’s inauguration in January 2025, marking his return to the White House.
The meetings, reported by Reuters, are seen as a preliminary effort to gauge whether significant diplomatic momentum can be achieved before the leadership change in Washington.
Focus on Regional Stability
Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister and senior nuclear negotiator, Majid Takht-Ravanchi, is leading the Iranian delegation. On Thursday evening, he met with the EU’s chief coordinator before Friday’s talks with senior diplomats from the UK, Germany, and France, collectively known as the E3.
Described as a “brainstorming session” by participating diplomats, the discussions aim to anticipate potential actions by the incoming Trump administration, which is expected to revive a “maximum pressure” strategy targeting Tehran. European, Israeli, and regional diplomats have expressed concerns over how Trump’s policies could reshape regional dynamics.
Trump’s Policy Expectations
During his first term, Trump withdrew the United States from the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), reimposing sanctions on Iran. A similar approach is expected in Trump’s second term, with key figures in his administration, such as Senator Marco Rubio, known for supporting aggressive measures against Tehran.
Diplomats suggest that Trump may pursue a “grand deal” involving regional players to address broader Middle Eastern crises. Such a deal could potentially encompass issues ranging from Iran’s nuclear programme to its influence in countries like Syria, Iraq, and Yemen.
Iran’s Objectives
For Iran, the primary goal remains the lifting of sanctions imposed since 2018, which have severely impacted its economy. Tehran has signalled its readiness to negotiate, provided that sanctions relief is on the table.
Three Iranian officials have indicated that securing such an agreement will be a priority in the coming weeks. However, they remain cautious about the feasibility of comprehensive talks, given the historically strained relations between Tehran and Washington under Trump’s leadership.
Escalation in Nuclear Activities
Since the US withdrawal from the JCPOA, Iran has progressively expanded its nuclear programme, including enriching uranium beyond levels agreed in the 2015 accord. This has raised concerns among the international community, particularly as the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) faces increasing challenges in monitoring Iran’s nuclear activities.
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