President Donald Trump’s proposed tariff regime, billed as a tool to revive American industry and rebalance trade, is prompting growing concern among defence experts, diplomats and industry officials who warn it may compromise US national security interests and strain defence relationships with key allies.
Under the executive order signed by President Trump, tariffs will be imposed across a broad range of imported goods, with rates of 20 per cent on items from the European Union and 10 per cent on imports from the United Kingdom and Australia. The measure, which lacks exemptions for the defence sector, has the potential to increase costs, slow production, and weaken the supply chains underpinning much of the Pentagon’s weapons manufacturing.
The policy marks a shift away from the integrated, multinational approach the US Department of Defense has spent decades cultivating. Several officials and analysts suggest the tariffs could endanger joint weapons development initiatives – including nuclear-powered submarine programmes with the UK and Australia – and erode confidence in the reliability of the United States as a defence partner.
A diplomat from a NATO member state, speaking on condition of anonymity, said, “We have requirements and we’re going to do what makes sense for us. We’re really looking at what we need to develop at home.” Similar sentiments were echoed by a European defence official, who noted that the EU’s own industrial capacity has improved, and that member states are now placing greater emphasis on becoming defence providers rather than consumers.
While the White House argues that the policy will reduce reliance on foreign inputs and restore domestic manufacturing jobs, critics say it is more likely to cause bottlenecks and drive up prices for the US military and its partners. Bill Greenwalt, a former Pentagon procurement official, said: “Some potentially vital supplies are either going to cost a whole heck of a lot more than what they did or they’re just not going to be available.”
One of the most prominent programmes potentially affected is the F-35 fighter jet project, a multinational initiative involving 20 countries. The aircraft is assembled from components manufactured across several continents – a structure that could now face significant disruption due to tariffs. Rocket systems developed in cooperation with Norway and missile defence technologies shared with Israel could also be impacted.
Keith Webster, President of the US Chamber of Commerce’s Defence and Aerospace Council, warned that costs would inevitably rise. “Our defence industrial base over decades was built on a global supply chain. In this case, the federal government’s the consumer, so its prices will increase,” he said.
Efforts to produce more components domestically may be hampered by shortages in the labour market. Defence firms have long struggled to compete for skilled workers against commercial manufacturing and service sectors offering higher wages and more predictable employment. “There are simply not enough people in the aerospace and defence sector to meet the current need,” said Dak Hardwick of the Aerospace Industries Association, speaking at a recent meeting of US and European defence executives.
Defence supply chains are particularly complex. Some components cross borders multiple times before final assembly – a fact that Senator Mark Kelly (Democrat, Arizona) says will amplify the cost impact. “The prices are going to go up, and the prices that the Department of Defense has to pay are going to go up,” he said. “Our defence budget, if we want to maintain the same type of force, will get more expensive.”
With pressure mounting, business groups and some members of Congress are calling for a strategic carve-out to shield the defence sector from the full impact of the tariff regime. Senator Kevin Cramer (Republican, North Dakota), co-chair of the Defence Modernisation Caucus, has publicly supported such a move. “I know that their ultimate goal is to onshore everything. But even at that, the onshoring will be more expensive than non-tariff imports,” he said.
The prospect of higher costs and delivery delays is already causing Washington’s allies to reconsider the resilience of joint ventures. Several NATO and Indo-Pacific partners are reportedly exploring ways to increase their own domestic defence production to reduce dependence on the US.
One NATO official summed up the mood: “We have to learn from this. Now is the time.”
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