European Union officials are scrutinising flight patterns between eastern Libya and Belarus amid concerns that Moscow and allied actors could be preparing to apply renewed migration pressure on the bloc’s eastern frontier.
The services, operated by Belarusian flag carrier Belavia, have prompted questions in Brussels about potential facilitation of irregular migration via eastern Libya, a region controlled by General Khalifa Haftar, who maintains close ties with the Kremlin.
An EU official said the “frequency and nature” of the Minsk–Benghazi flights “raise questions about potential facilitation of irregular migration flows”. Open-source tracking cited by officials shows a recent uptick in services on the route, with two flights in May, five in June and four in July. While the totals are modest, the pattern is being compared with movements seen in the lead-up to the 2021 border emergency on the EU’s eastern flank.
The flight scrutiny comes against a wider backdrop of rising arrivals on the southern maritime routes. Between January and July 2025, more than 36,700 people reached Italy from Libya, according to figures shared with EU institutions. Over the same period, more than 10,000 arrived on the Greek island of Crete — around four times the number recorded a year earlier. Border services report that flows fluctuate by week, driven by weather, smuggling activity and political conditions in North Africa and the eastern Mediterranean.
The Commission is sharing information with member states and Frontex while monitoring developments at the EU’s eastern land borders, where approximately 5,500 irregular crossings were recorded in the first seven months of 2025. Frontex has identified Belarus as a principal challenge this year, reflecting persistent concerns about state-enabled movements towards Poland, Lithuania and Latvia.
European officials note that the Belarus route was instrumental in 2021, when people were facilitated to Minsk and then moved to the frontier areas. At the time, EU governments said Belarusian authorities eased visa issuance, organised flights and transported groups from the Middle East and Africa to staging points near EU territory. Analysts later assessed the episode as part of a broader hybrid approach aligned with Russian interests shortly before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Belarus denies orchestrating irregular migration.
In Libya, General Haftar’s Libyan Arab Armed Forces control much of the east, including Benghazi and key coastal infrastructure. Russia’s footprint in the area has grown in recent years, with evidence of equipment and personnel support. At a recent LAAF parade, Russian armoured vehicles and air-defence systems were displayed, underscoring a deepening relationship. European security services assess that Haftar’s authorities exert leverage over smuggling networks operating from eastern Libya, a longstanding departure point towards Italy, Malta and Greece.
Greece, facing rising arrivals on Crete and monitoring activity near its exclusive economic zone, has highlighted another dimension: Turkey’s diplomacy in the central and eastern Mediterranean. Athens was not invited to a trilateral meeting in Ankara on 1 August, where President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan met Italy’s prime minister, Giorgia Meloni, and Libyan representatives to discuss migration and energy co-operation. Greek officials view the engagement as a potential shift in regional alignments, citing Ankara’s recent rapprochement with General Khalifa Haftar and plans to reopen its consulate in Benghazi.
Athens is also concerned about the implementation of a contested maritime agreement between Turkey and Libya that projects Turkish-Libyan claims across areas south of Crete. The EU does not recognise the deal. According to officials, the issue was raised by the EU’s High Representative, Kaja Kallas, during her visit to Turkey in January, with Brussels reiterating that delimitations must respect international law and the rights of third countries.
The Greek opposition has criticised the government over perceived diplomatic sidelining, alleging that Rome’s participation in Ankara without Athens amounted to a setback for co-ordination among close partners. Nicolas Farantouris, a left-wing MEP, warned that Greece risks strategic encirclement if regional initiatives proceed without its involvement, and argued that Turkey is playing a destabilising role in both Libya and the Middle East. He urged Athens to convene talks with Cyprus, Libya and Egypt to consolidate positions on energy and maritime boundaries. However, Greece and Egypt are currently at odds over Cairo’s intention to confiscate an ancient Greek Orthodox monastery at the foot of Mount Sinai, complicating near-term diplomatic choreography despite broader alignment on maritime issues.
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