Left Party

In a historic turn of events, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) has won its first-ever state election in Thuringia, according to early projections.

The right-wing populist party, which has been classified as “established right-wing extremist” by the state’s domestic intelligence service, emerged as the strongest political force, marking a significant shift in the region’s political landscape.

The AfD, led by its controversial Spitzenkandidat (lead candidate) Björn Höcke, garnered approximately 30.5% of the vote, with some projections even suggesting it could reach as high as 33.1%. This result places the AfD well ahead of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), which secured 24.5% of the vote, positioning it as the second-largest party in the state parliament.

The results represent a major defeat for the Left Party (Die Linke), which has governed Thuringia under the leadership of Minister-President Bodo Ramelow since 2014. The Left Party saw its support plummet to 12.5%, placing it fourth, a stark contrast to the 31% it achieved in the 2019 elections. This significant loss underscores the changing political dynamics in Thuringia, where the traditional stronghold of the Left has been dramatically weakened.

Emerging as a surprising third force in the election is the newly formed Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW), which secured 16% of the vote. The party, founded by the former Left Party politician Sahra Wagenknecht, has quickly gained traction among voters, particularly those disillusioned with the traditional parties. The BSW’s rapid rise to prominence reflects a broader fragmentation of the political landscape in Thuringia, where voter allegiance is increasingly volatile.

The Social Democratic Party (SPD), once a dominant force in German politics, managed to capture only 7% of the vote, further highlighting its continued decline in popularity. Meanwhile, the Green Party (Grüne) and the Free Democratic Party (FDP) failed to clear the 5% threshold required for representation in the state parliament, securing just 4.0% and 1.3% of the vote, respectively. The poor performance of these parties, all part of the current federal government coalition, signals a broader dissatisfaction among the electorate with the ruling coalition in Berlin.

The voter turnout was notably higher than in the previous state election, with participation rates between 73.5% and 74.0%, up from 64.9% in 2019. This increase in voter engagement suggests a highly mobilised electorate, driven perhaps by the polarising nature of the campaign and the broader national political climate.

Challenges in Forming a Government

Despite the AfD’s decisive victory, its prospects of leading the next government remain slim. All other major parties have categorically ruled out forming a coalition with the AfD, citing its extremist positions as incompatible with democratic governance. Höcke, however, has indicated his party’s willingness to engage in coalition talks, stating, “We are ready to take on the responsibility of governing.”

The CDU, under the leadership of Mario Voigt, has also claimed the mandate to form the next government, citing its position as the second-largest party. Voigt has expressed a desire to lead a government that brings about political change in Thuringia, but forming a viable coalition will be challenging given the fragmented nature of the election results.

One potential coalition could involve the CDU partnering with the BSW and the SPD. However, such a coalition would be unprecedented and potentially unstable, given the ideological differences between the parties involved. The CDU would need to collaborate with the BSW, led by former Left Party politician Katja Wolf, and SPD leader Georg Maier, who also serves as Thuringia’s Minister of the Interior. Whether these parties can find common ground remains uncertain.

The existing red-red-green coalition (a partnership of the Left Party, SPD, and the Greens), which governed with the support of the CDU, has been effectively ruled out as a viable option due to its significant loss of seats.

Implications for National Politics

The outcome of the Thuringia election is likely to reverberate beyond the state’s borders, influencing the national political discourse in Germany. The AfD’s victory, combined with the rise of the BSW, reflects growing disenchantment with the traditional parties and could embolden other populist and fringe movements across the country.

Moreover, the result is a clear message to the federal government in Berlin, which has faced criticism for its handling of various issues, including the economy, immigration, and energy policy. The substantial losses suffered by the SPD, Greens, and FDP in Thuringia may prompt a re-evaluation of strategies at the national level as the coalition government seeks to shore up its support ahead of future elections.