In a wide-ranging interview, Valerii Zaluzhnyi, Ukraine’s former Commander-in-Chief and current Ambassador to the United Kingdom, shared his insights into the ongoing war in Ukraine and its implications for global security. Zaluzhnyi discussed the technological, psychological, and strategic dimensions of modern conflict, arguing that technological evolution will remain a decisive factor in shaping the outcomes of wars for years to come.
Technological Stalemate on the Battlefield
Zaluzhnyi reiterated his assessment from a previous interview with The Economist, where he described the frontlines as being in a deadlock due to equivalent technological capabilities on both sides. He noted that the increasing deployment of robotics and automated systems on the battlefield has fundamentally altered the dynamics of war.
“These advancements make traditional troop movements across open terrain nearly impossible,” he explained. “Neither side can execute operational tasks such as advancing 150-200 kilometres, as outlined in past military doctrines.”
According to Zaluzhnyi, this stalemate reflects an ongoing “technical-evolutionary process,” which he predicts will culminate around 2027. At that point, the accumulation of advanced technologies could enable breakthroughs. However, he cautioned that economic and demographic constraints might deter large-scale wars of territorial conquest, even if the technological conditions allow for them.
The Rise of Attritional Warfare
Zaluzhnyi highlighted Russia’s strategic shift to a war of attrition, describing it as a deliberate effort to undermine Ukraine’s economic stability and societal morale. He pointed to a range of tactics employed by Russia, including:
- Missile and drone strikes on civilian and energy infrastructure.
- Information warfare campaigns aimed at disrupting mobilisation efforts.
- Psychological operations targeting public attitudes toward the war.
“The enemy is incrementally forcing us out of positions, albeit at significant cost to their own forces,” he said. “Their strategy relies on degrading our economy and morale while leveraging propaganda to weaken societal resolve.”
Despite these efforts, Zaluzhnyi noted that Russia lacks the resources to conduct deep offensives or significantly expand its frontlines. The limited capacity for concentrated attacks highlights the attritional nature of the conflict.
European and NATO Preparedness
When asked about the readiness of European nations and NATO to support Ukraine in this prolonged conflict, Zaluzhnyi was sceptical. He noted that while Western nations are prepared for limited-scale conflicts, they may not be equipped to handle a war of attrition on the scale currently unfolding in Ukraine.
“In October alone, Ukraine faced over 2,000 air threats, including drones and missiles,” he revealed. “Few NATO countries could counter such an onslaught without exhausting their air defence systems.”
He emphasised that while countries like the United Kingdom possess advanced systems such as F-16 fighter jets, the high costs and limited production capacity of modern defence technologies make sustaining such efforts challenging. Zaluzhnyi called for greater investment in cost-effective and scalable defence solutions to address the increasing volume of aerial threats.
The Role of Artificial Intelligence
Looking ahead, Zaluzhnyi identified artificial intelligence (AI) as a potential game-changer in warfare. He argued that AI-driven technologies, including autonomous systems and advanced communication tools, will redefine military doctrines and operational strategies.
“AI will be central to future conflicts, but its integration must be carefully managed,” he warned. “Psychologists, lawyers, and technical experts need to establish boundaries to prevent AI from overstepping into areas where human intuition and emotions are irreplaceable.”
Zaluzhnyi expressed concern about the ethical implications of AI in warfare, citing the need for international regulations to safeguard humanity from the unintended consequences of unchecked technological progress.
A Global Perspective: Has World War III Already Begun?
Zaluzhnyi also touched on the broader implications of the conflict in Ukraine, suggesting that it could be viewed as the opening chapter of a larger global confrontation. He pointed to the involvement of external actors, including North Korea and Iran, as evidence of an expanding geopolitical struggle.
“In 2024, we are no longer facing just Russia,” he said. “North Korean soldiers, Iranian drones, and Chinese components in Russian weaponry are all part of this conflict. This is not just a war against Ukraine—it is a war against the free world.”
Despite this grim assessment, Zaluzhnyi urged the international community to act decisively to contain the war and prevent further escalation. He stressed that Ukraine’s struggle is not only about its sovereignty but also about preserving global stability.
