The Trump administration is holding talks with Belarus over the possible release of more than 100 political prisoners, in what would be the largest such deal to date between Washington and Minsk, according to people familiar with the discussions.
The negotiations mark a further step in a gradual rapprochement between the United States and the Belarusian government of President Alexander Lukashenko, a close ally of Russia that has faced extensive Western sanctions over its human rights record and support for Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Since President Donald Trump took office in January, Belarus has conducted several staged releases of detainees regarded by Western governments and rights groups as political prisoners. In June, 14 prisoners were freed following a visit to Minsk by a senior U.S. envoy. In September, Belarus released 52 prisoners of various nationalities after an appeal from Trump; they were taken by a U.S. delegation to neighbouring Lithuania.
Rights organisations say more than 1,000 people remain behind bars in Belarus on politically motivated charges, including former presidential candidates, journalists and at least one Nobel Peace Prize laureate. The authorities deny holding political prisoners.
According to three sources briefed on the talks, U.S. officials are now seeking a single agreement covering “well over” 100 detainees, though the final number, the list of names and the timing of any release remain under discussion. The White House has declined public comment, and the Belarusian embassy in Washington has not responded to media inquiries.
The initiative forms part of a wider effort by Washington to use sanctions relief as leverage to adjust Minsk’s external alignment. Since September, the United States has begun to ease some restrictions, including measures targeting Belarus’ state airline, Belavia, following the earlier prisoner release. One option discussed informally this year has been further relief in the strategically important potash sector, though no decision has been announced.
Trump has personally engaged with Lukashenko in recent months, speaking with him directly as contacts intensified. John Coale, a lawyer who helped negotiate earlier releases, was appointed special envoy to Belarus earlier in November and is now one of the key figures in the talks, alongside officials from the U.S. Treasury and State Departments.
Belarus has signalled that it views prisoner releases as a transactional process. The September group, which included an EU staff member and several high-profile activists, was pardoned and then transported to the Lithuanian border. Some of those freed have complained that the releases amounted in practice to forced deportation, pointing to cases such as veteran opposition politician Mikola Statkevich, who reportedly refused to leave Belarus and was subsequently returned to prison.
Despite the high-profile gestures, arrests have continued. Human rights monitors report that new detentions on extremism and protest-related charges have accompanied each wave of pardons. In parallel, Belarus has maintained close military and security co-operation with Russia. Its territory was used as a staging ground for Russian forces in the 2022 assault on Kyiv, and recent weeks have seen large balloons launched from Belarusian territory into Lithuanian airspace, forcing temporary groundstops at a major airport.
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Relations with EU member states remain tense. The European Union last month tightened sanctions on Minsk in response to ongoing repression and Belarus’ role in Russia’s war. In September, the Czech Republic and Poland expelled Belarusian diplomats over alleged espionage activities, prompting tit-for-tat measures from Minsk.
Many European diplomats view Belarus as effectively a Russian satellite and have been sceptical of Washington’s push to draw the country marginally towards the West. Their concerns have been heightened by a U.S.-backed 28-point peace plan for Ukraine that, according to a separate Reuters report, drew heavily on a Russian document and was seen in some European capitals as too accommodating to Moscow’s demands.
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Against that backdrop, the current talks over Belarusian prisoners are being closely watched in European capitals. Officials fear that significant sanctions relief could be granted to Lukashenko in return for a one-off humanitarian gesture, without any lasting change in domestic repression or in Minsk’s position on the war in Ukraine. Belarus has recently floated the idea of a nuclear power station in eastern Belarus supplying electricity to Russian-controlled areas of Ukraine, reinforcing perceptions that it remains firmly aligned with Moscow.
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The U.S. State Department has praised Trump’s involvement and Coale’s efforts, stating that Washington is prepared for further engagement with Belarus where this advances U.S. interests and contributes to the release of detainees. For now, however, the outcome of the negotiations remains uncertain. Officials caution that discussions over names, sequencing and sanctions are complex, and that a large-scale release could still fail to materialise if either side judges the price too high.
