France was plunged into a fresh political crisis on Monday, 8 September, after the National Assembly voted to withdraw confidence from Prime Minister François Bayrou by 364 votes to 194.
The defeat ends Bayrou’s nine-month tenure and forces the government’s resignation, leaving President Emmanuel Macron to decide swiftly whether to appoint a new prime minister, attempt a broader deal with the left, or dissolve parliament. The Elysée said a successor would be named “in the coming days.”
Bayrou, 74, had tied his government’s fate to an emergency confidence debate centred on public debt, warning that France faced an “existential” fiscal risk without rapid consolidation. His 2026 plan sought €44bn in savings through measures including scrapping two public holidays and freezing some welfare and pension outlays. The appeal failed to bridge France’s fragmented legislature; the left and far right combined to vote him down, while centrists lacked the numbers to protect him. “You have the power to bring down the government, but you cannot erase reality,” he told deputies before the vote.
The result sets France on course to appoint its fifth prime minister in less than two years, underscoring the instability since Macron lost his absolute majority. Far-left figures called for the president’s resignation; Marine Le Pen renewed demands for fresh elections. Markets and ratings agencies are watching the next steps as borrowing costs rise and the political arithmetic remains unsettled.
France’s debt stands at roughly €3.3–€3.4 trillion, about 114% of GDP, and interest payments are projected to climb sharply this decade. The Banque de France has warned that annual servicing costs could exceed €100bn by 2030, up from around €30bn in 2020, reshaping budget priorities. That trajectory—combined with sluggish growth—framed Bayrou’s argument for rapid restraint, but also fuelled opposition to austerity inside and outside parliament.
Street mobilisation is set to intensify. A citizens’ movement branded “Bloquons Tout” (“Let’s Block Everything”) has called nationwide actions for Wednesday, 10 September, while France’s union confederations have announced a united day of strikes and protests for Thursday, 18 September. Authorities are preparing for disruption across transport and public services as the political crisis overlaps with a social contest over the 2026 fiscal plan.
Bayrou’s fall follows his predecessor Michel Barnier’s failure to pass a budget last year, which led Macron to install the centrist MoDem leader in December. Bayrou secured a 2025 finance bill after a limited pact with the Socialists, but those relations deteriorated over pension reform and the scale of proposed cuts. Monday’s vote confirmed that, in the current Assembly, any government lacking a broad agreement is vulnerable to combined opposition from left and right.
Attention now shifts to Macron’s choice of successor. Names circulating in Paris include Defence Minister Sébastien Lecornu, Labour and Health Minister Catherine Vautrin, Justice Minister Gérald Darmanin, and Economy Minister Éric Lombard. Any new prime minister will face the same arithmetic: a hung parliament, a looming budget timetable, and parties on both flanks demanding the repeal of the pension reform that raised the retirement age to 64.
The immediate policy question is whether the next government pursues Bayrou’s consolidation path, shifts towards tax-led adjustment to secure left-of-centre support, or seeks a temporary cross-party accord to pass a minimal budget. The finance ministry had aimed to reduce the deficit from 5.4% of GDP this year, but the collapse complicates the timetable for a 2026 programme and risks further volatility in French spreads.
For now, Macron remains in office with constitutional authority to appoint a prime minister and, if needed, dissolve the Assembly. But with protests scheduled from 10 and 18 September and party leaders already manoeuvring for advantage, the margin for error is narrow. The next occupant of Matignon will need to assemble votes quickly for a credible budget, or France may be heading for another electoral test before year-end.
